RE:Mex tax issue...thoughts Of course it's hyped up by the tax authorities themselves and the short/s are piggy backing the situation, that's natural. You could even put your paranoia hat on and surmise that the tax authorities could have even been 'prompted' by the bullion banks if they were the ones sat on the large short position.
Tax authorities, as with any negotiation, it's all about from a position of strength but the simple fact is that this is now just another civil case that the Mexican government desperately wanted a criminal tag on to focus the executive minds and they failed in that regard. Walmart were caught bribing all and sundry, very different situation.
Seems as though the last thing the Mexican tax authorities wanted was arbitration from NAFTA, but that's what they got.
Personally I think if FR makes a payment it will be more about a face saving exercise for the authorities, albeit it's all in the detail which we don't know. I could be completely wrong. That said Sprott would have certainly had his own legal counsel give their own independent opinion regarding the case merits prior to him investing the initial $60m. Some people might think of him as a P T Barnum but he is certainly no fool when it comes to investing.
When resolved it will open the floodgates for further investment from those institutional investors prohibited from investing currently. If all goes 'as I suspect', caveat emptor and all that, then I think we could easily see a spike of 25%-30% within a couple of days, even in the midst of a neutral silver market.