Century Lithium Corp V.LCE

RE:RE:Updated Numbers/ Math/ Share Pricing

[yakattack]

CYP needs to strike a balance between not being overly greedy and ruining the chance at selling at proper value (or at all)..... but also not undermining everyone who has supported them over the years and selling out at an amount which is dirt cheap and looking ridiculous on the world stage.

Looking at these valuations in the chart.... the going rate should be at least double the average percentage these competitors are (2x the 40-50%).... but again - when you consider how big this property is.... it could sell for 150% of NPV and still be a good deal for the buyer... because in reality it's more like 30% of total NPV on the lands.

What CYP really needs to be doing at this point is RAISING THE SHARE PRICE FOR THEIR SHAREHOLDERS. THIS NOT ONLY PUTS THEM IN A BETTER SITUATION FOR FUTURE FINANCING IF ANY - BUT IT WILL HELP IN NEGOTIATIONS. IT OPENS UP MORE DOORS. CAN'T BE NEGOTIATING AT 1.25. NEED TO BE NEGOTIATING AT 12.25. SO FAR THE PROJECT IS WORKING TO NDAs FAVOUR. NEEDS TO START WORKING FOR SHAREHOLDERS. NDAs HAVE HAD PLENTY OF TIME TO PUT IN REASONABLE OFFERS. TIME TO PONY UP NOW IN DOUBLE DIGITS.

yakattack wrote:

yakattack wrote:

Using current numbers from investing.com's Carbonate pricing, of 87K CNY ($13,366 USD)... and a conversion rate of 1.3 USD to CAD as an average.

 

All estimates using 31K tonnes of hydroxide (PFS used 27K but converted to hydroxide is just over 31K, so being a tad conservative). Also using CAPEX of 495M which should get lowered a bit. Other changes listed in each scenario.

 

145M shares of CYP is being used as an estimate.

 

 

 

Base Case:

 

2.19 Billion USD (2.85 Billion CAD)

IRR of 78.5%

50% EV/NPV Share Price = $ 9.83 CAD

Share price equal to Piedmont's EV/NPV marketing rating (125%+ EV/NPV) = $24.56 CAD

 

 

-----------------------------------------

 

If hydroxide is being used, then (being conservative) giving just a premium on top of $1K per tonne, we have:

 

2.45 Billion USD (3.19 Billion CAD)

93.9% IRR

50% EV/NPV Share Price = $11 CAD

Share price equal to Piedmont's EV/NPV marketing rating (125%+ EV/NPV) = $27.50 CAD

 

 

Right now hydroxide is less than carbonate due to a variety of factors, but that is agreed upon to shift as hydroxide is used in high-nickel/longer range EVs.

 

-----------------------------------------

If the (hydrochloric acid/sodium chloride "table salt") pilot plant works out and OPEX can be lowered to... $2,600 instead of $3,300, using the same 1K premium per tonne of hydroxide of $14,366, we have::

 

 

2.65 Billion USD (3.45 Billion CAD)

107% IRR

50% EV/NPV Share Price = $11.90 CAD

Share price equal to Piedmont's EV/NPV marketing rating (125%+ EV/NPV) = $29.74 CAD

 

 

-----------------------------------------

Same as above, except LCE carbonate pricing rises to 14K, pushing hydroxide to $15K or over:

 

 

2.82 Billion USD (3.6 Billion CAD)

120% IRR

50% EV/NPV Share Price = $12.62 CAD

Share price equal to Piedmont's EV/NPV marketing rating (125%+ EV/NPV)  = $31.03 CAD

 

 

 

You can multiply all these numbers by 3-4 to get a property wide estimate, as the PFS is only using about 25% of the property, due to the increase on resources from last summer and again now in March, 2021.


Any fair purchase would need to entail the entire property - or at minimum, 100% of NPV for existing project, based on new numbers, otherwise it would be a take-under, not a take-over.