RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Revenue CalculationsThe issue with predicting so early is that there's such a wide variance. That 500 mesc connector order was out of the blue. Is it a one off? Will there be more that size? The company said that they were seeing 10, 15, 20 mesh connector bulk orders being made and then bam - 500 in one shot. Here's what it looks like:
| Date | Sector | # Mesh C’s |
| Q4-2020 | Guidance for Q4 (Oct-Dec) | 300 |
| February 24, 2021 | Hardware Company | 22 |
| March 11, 2021 | Home Furnishings | 11 |
| March 11, 2021 | Home Furnishings | 10 |
| March 18, 2021 | Product Content Management | 500 |
Ok, so the sum is 843 mesh connectors taking into account that they hit their 300 mesh connector number in Q4-2020.
This is what I kind of have set-up:
| Scenario | Mesh Connector / Share Price | Q4-2020 | Q1-2021 | Q2-2021 | Q3-2021 | Q4-2021 | Q1-2022 |
| Company Meets Expectations | Guidance Cumulative | 300 | 550 | 900 | 1390 | 2076 | 3201 |
| Share Price Expansion (Mid-Range — 11x Sales) | $0.02 | $0.08 | $0.13 | $0.20 | $0.29 | $0.45 |
| Company Overperforms | Revised Guidance Cumulative | 300 | 1,150 | 1,620 | 1,848 | 2,587 | 3,984 |
| Share Price Expansion (Best Case - 20x Sales) | $0.05 | $0.29 | $0.41 | $0.47 | $0.66 | $1.02 |
| Company Underperforms | None Performing Cumulative | 250 | 650 | 748 | 860 | 989 | 1137 |
| Share Price Collapsing (5x Sales) | $0.01 | $0.04 | $0.05 | $0.06 | $0.06 | $0.07 |
Each column, the liklihood of occuring:
Meets Expectations: 35%
Company Overperforming: 5%
Company Underperforming: 10%
The last 50% I would spread in between Underperforming and Meeting Expectations just becasue the targets management has set are just
SO optimistic.
This blended rate kind of illustrates it.
| Scenario | Mesh Connector / Share Price | Q4-2020 | Q1-2021 | Q2-2021 | Q3-2021 | Q4-2021 | Q1-2022 |
| Blended | Share Price | $0.02 | $0.09 | $0.13 | $0.18 | $0.26 | $0.39 |
They have been adding retail mesh connectors at a 300% growth rate shown here but recently it has slowed.
| Date | Retail Connections | Growth Rate | 300% |
| June 15, 2020 | 136 | | |
| July 15, 2020 | 178 | | |
| August 15, 2020 | 263 | | |
| September 15, 2020 | 327 | | |
| February 24, 2021 | 385 | | |
And they have been growing above their 580% CAGR shown here (assuming they were at the Q4 guindance):
| Date | Sector | # Mesh C’s | Growth | 690% |
| Q4-2020 | Guidance for Q4 (Oct-Dec) | 300 | Total # Mesh C’s | 843 |
| February 24, 2021 | Hardware Company | 22 | | |
| March 11, 2021 | Home Furnishings | 11 | | |
| March 11, 2021 | Home Furnishings | 10 | | |
| March 18, 2021 | Product Content Management | 500 | | |
I would be more comfortable with 25 companies ordering 20 mesh connectors vs. one company ordering 500. There's definitely some risk there.
I would say overall, this should be trading around ~ 0.12 - 0.15. And 0.20 if you're bullsih.
Let me know if you like this and I'll try to update it semi-regularly.
Yeppers.