RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:How Urbana could be a hot IPO-related storyYour analysis is basically correct but you should bear in mind two things.
First, the NCIB that started in September 2020 has now been pretty much completed in terms of the total number of shares allowed. Until at least next September there will be no more buybacks (or just the few that there's still room for).
Second, talk with Tom. His view right now, to the best of my knowledge, is that the buybacks have simply not worked--due to the fact that the discount is still there. My take is that he's rather cool on the idea of more buybacks. And if he doesn't want to do more buybacks ever again then there is pretty much nothing anyone else can do about it.
Not long back I pitched Tom on the idea of Urbana approaching EdgePoint with the thought that they might agree to commit some or all of their 5.5 million URB.A shares to a Substantial Issuer Bid. Edgepoint sold 1.5 million to the NCIB in January 2021. Maybe they could be prevailed upon to sell the rest, especially if it could be a little higher than the current price, say, $3.20?
This way, the idea goes, you'd get EdgePoint to be the anchor for a SIB of maybe 8-10 million shares. Hence there's no danger of the embarrassment of doing an SIB and having no one accept it.
Tom had zero interest in the idea. Indeed, I think that as soon as the words "Substantial Issuer Bid" came out of my mouth I had lost my audience.
By the way, ordinarily I would never disclose specifics of a conversation I've had with Tom--or any private conversation for that matter. In this case I don't think there's any harm because I'm pretty sure these are things Tom will tell any shareholder who calls up.
My point--don't be so sure there will be more buybacks. Maybe not ever.