kavern23 wrote: It is still a tough energy market overall.
I think YGR will trade at 3 times whatever IPO stock price s the closer we get to December 2021. I would do some friendly wagers with some of you stockhouse posters on this. In box me the stakes..dead serious...no crazy amounts of money.
I like IPO but I think it will be challenging to break 60 -65 range without Q1 results.
YGR will likely be the first Cardium player to appericiate in stock price out of thier current range.
I don't think IPO will break out first. The heavy shortin in YGR is only thing that already is likely keeping YGR from trading 3 times higher or at least closer to this ratio.
The big disadvantage IPO has to some of it's competitors like YGR is the fact IPO is only spending 23M or 8 wells...and in latest press release they state they plan to keep it this way.
YGR is going to spend 60M...and could be more as they stated they will run a rig flat out as long as these current oil prices.
Spending a high capex right now is good if you believe oil prices are going to be high rest of 2020 and even high in 2022. YGR likely will have 21 wells drilled and 24 well comepleted and tied in during 2021...if these prices hold.
And it helps when you talk to your banker if you come with 7-10 freshly drilled wells with lots of reserves left as reserves is one key thing with the bankers during the reviews...who knows what the climate is..if it improves I suspect YGR can even get an increase on their faculty.
Knock on wood, but it looks like YGR came out of 2020 the least damaged out of the cardium players. YGR debt faculty still has normal conditions and terms..compare that to BNE, IPO and OBE. YGR is only one with a normal debt to equity ratio...others are really hurting from 2020.
2021 is going to be a catch up year too for YGR to some extent but came out of it so well because the bankers didnt force YGR to hedge past June and YGR is allowed to spend still in 2021.
So their is a catch to IPO free cashflow...it is being put towards debt...but the question I propose that I cant answer is this being encouraged by the bank...
I don't think we are in a bull market yet...but when we do I think YGR flys and then eventually IPO will go up.
I may become an investor in IPO again if price right. ...right now YGR is too cheap. GL all and I hope I am wrong unless we bet.
Hendrick3 wrote: It appears the sector in general is taking a rest after the big run up. Things can change quickly but if the malaise of today is any indication, this may be stuck in the 50's for a few weeks. The problem is if you wait to buy it, you might find yourself chasing it when it takes off. Even at today's pricing it looks like it will be over 25 cents per share free cash flow which is an exceptional rate of return. Everything in this sector appears cheap but this one seems extraordinarily cheap based on the fundamentals.