RE:RE:RE:RE:Hey PIP can you do these bike tricksIMO fair value probably around $4.50/$5 ATM operating at 75% capacity because ROW demand is still CV impacted and there is just so much uncertainty around what Lynas isgoing to look likein ~3 years.
IF, big if, it plays out the way I suspect it will probably run +$10 in a few years with primary SX at Kal streaming specific carbonate to separation & finishing plants in the US, Asia and possibly EU, all depends on what mag makers can build a sustainable business & where. There would be specific secondary product streams at each location such as La To US FCC, this is made into final product and exported by Grace, BASF, et al, all round the world. Lynas will cater to that with high quality, value added REO inputs.
But so much of this now is dependent on Govt's, terrifyingly so, and a bunch of them, Aust, Malaysia, Japan, US, perhaps Germany, and not least the Dragon, this has to introduce so much uncertainty as to what Lynas will look like at the conclusion of what promises to be a very major expansion. If it all comes together Lynas will be incredibly cost effective, not just low costs but high value output, and I doubt any others will come even close this decade.
But oxides are very likely over valued by Chinese speculation & H2 stimulus post CV, equities certainly are, valuations of some of the dreamboats utterly riduiculous, and Lynas will be marked back with them. I've sold ~1M, about half, I'll start to buy back approaching A$5 and probably throw the kitchen sink at it if it gets ~A$4.50, already diversified into HAS, closest thing I've ever seen to a sure thing in the stockmkt, and will exercise my MDL15c warrants to maintain +3.5% equity, fully diluted.
We are witnessing paradigm change REO, a maturing of the industry, but China has NOT wasted 30 years building near 90% dominance and the stupid dreamboats that have popped up everywhere on equity mkts are NOT going to seriously challenge the Dragon either REO or NdFeB.
Perhaps the most powerful buying signal Lynas would be Katherine Tai declaring a 13% tariff on Chinese NdFeB entering the US, she will most likely try to negotiate China to drop their trade manipulation with selective VAT refunds, NdFeB 100%, REO zero, this will be a massive tell Biden's commitment US NdFeB supply chain, creating a level playing field.
Just incredible Biden Admin has elevated RE to one of four most important segments with 100 day review for action, and I suspect at lot of work has already been done RE with the announcement of Lynas LRE within 48hrs of Inauguration, that was spectacular, and plenty more to come. Watch Katherine Tai, brilliant pick, she knows RE & show knows Chinese trade manipulation, she ran the US WTO case against the Dragon 2011 - 2014, and she will have the Lynas playbook on exactly how to neuter that manipulation. Clearly ROW nations will need to work together to contain Chinese aggression, RE is potentially a great example of just how that might work.