RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Damn.. what's happening here?If we were 6months back, or even 3, I'd agree with the US opportunities, but multiples are getting so high that the risk/reward (to me, at least) has definitely edged towards Canadian companies (including FAF). This is not to say that TRU, GTII, etc. won't do well, but they are getting quite expensive if one would be starting a position right now.
Regarding market saturation, AB, QC, and NB are out because they are either 'nationalized' or have reached saturation (AB).
There still room for growth, through. Apart from AB and PEI, most (50%+) people are not living within 10KM of a Cannabis store (
The Retail Cannabis Market in Canada: A Portrait of the First Year (statcan.gc.ca). I couldn't rapidly find store per capita, but this only speaks to potential for expansion.
And anyway, I think the route FAF will take is acquisition (vs. opening their own store). They will target underperforming store (that won't be too expensive to buy), make an offer (we've been buying around 1.25-2M a store), and turn the store around. So growth in Canada is high following this approach, until the market becomes consolidated, but I think we're a few years away from that.
In short/TLDR:really not worried about growth for FAF in Canada. Lots of room because of mom and pop shops that might not know much about how to run a retail store and will be interested to sell.
Warrant renegotiation requires shareholder vote. IT seems there's a vote coming on April 30th. Not sure what it is for. Let's see.
For the US route, this is the only approach possible because of Canadian regulation assoicated with being listed on the TSX. It was that or waiting until the US fully legalizes at the Federal level.
Thanks for hte comments!