GREY:NEVDQ - Post by User
Post by
bogfiton Mar 30, 2021 10:17am
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Post# 32905348
risk of a copper shortage in the middle of the decade
risk of a copper shortage in the middle of the decade - Copper demand is expected to increase as more electric vehicle manufacturers ramp up production.
- Morgan Stanley breaks down the impact of EVs on copper supply.
- "Our commodity team assumes an average of 20kg of copper in the average ICE light vehicle and 75kg per copper in the average BEV. Applied to our de-adoption of ICE and our adoption of BEVs in our global auto forecast suggests a growth in copper demand for light vehicles (excluding infrastructure) to approximately 3.4 million tons by 2030 vs. around 1.6 million tons today for a CAGR just shy of 8%."
- MS notes that the global copper market is a 22M ton market for refined copper with the total market being around 28M tons which includes 6M tons of scrap in between. MS sees a risk in the middle of the decade of a copper shortage and notes a copper substitute could be more than ten years out.