RE:RE:RE:RE:WilanderCabbie - have attached your last post below and inserted some comments, in CAPS just so they are visible.
Shareholders, responding to your crickets comment, there are several factors to consider when holding QTRH. I was unconcerned about the share price drop after the Q4 results announcement. While I can appreciate that not pre-announcing may have been bad optics for some, the market reaction was absurd. MY CONCERN IS NOT WHAT THE MARKET DOES. IT IS WHAT MANAGEMENT AND BoD DO.You seem like a smart fellow, so you must have done due diligence on QTRH before jumping in to the stock. Some observations on QTRH: - Pre-announcement of quarterly results is the exception rather than the rule. At one point Wilan issued guidance but stopped as it felt that was allowing leverage to potential licensees. In the past 4 years results have been pre-announced twice. The first was the Samsung agreement, which was in the $75M USD range and the LG agreement. QTRH SHOULD NOT BE SELECTIVE, SHARING THE GOOD, WITHHOLDING THE BAD. PLUS, HOW MUCH BETTER WAS Q3 THAN Q4 WAS BAD?
- Wilan produces a baseline of about $500,000 revenue on a quarterly basis from running royalty agreements.
- Only one license was announced during Q4 and its terms were confidential, as is normal for both Wilan and other PIPCOs in the IP monetization sector. If QTRH had announced that revenue for the quarter was ~$500K that would likely have breeched the confidentiality provision of the 11/30/20 announced license by inference. QTRH ANNOUNCED REVENUE ON MARCH 11, SO WHAT WOULD THE DIFFERENCE BE IF REVENUE WAS PREANNOUNCED SAU JANUARY 11?
- Play the long game and trade opportunistically. THIS MAY BE THE REASON FOR CRICKETS. QTRH MAY NOT HAVE ENOUGH REAL OWNERS. IT MAY HAVE MANY INVESTORS WHO WISH TO JUST TRADE. SOME APPEAR TO BE OF THE PUMP AND DUMP VARIETY. Since there was nothing in the announcement per se, or other pressers on Q1/21 business, to fundamentally change the view of the business, the extent of the share price drop was an over-reaction in the absurd – hence a short term buying opportunity. THE POINT IS NOT IF THERE WAS A BUYING OPPORTUNITY OR NOT. THAT COULD ALSO HAVE BEEN CREATED ON JANUARY 11. THE POINT IS FAIR AND TIMELY DISCLOSURE FOR ALL. Similar opportunities may arise when the market over-reacts on the upside to positive results or news;
- Brokers know how to play QTRH’s share price for their benefit. Is not having commentary on the quarter bad optics? Before jumping on management, consider the analysts and brokers who did not revise quarterly expectations. They have made a big pot of money on the dip.THE ANALYSTS DO NOT REPRESENT SHAREHOLDERS OR TO MANAGE THE COMPANY ON BEHALF OF SHAREHOLDERS. MANAGING DEMANDS FAIR AND TIMELY DISCLOSURE.
Novices and even skilled investors can get wrapped up in the minutia of the moment and lose focus on the big picture. 2021 is shaping up as a potential banner year for QTRH: READ MY POST ABOUT THE $1M PER YEAR IMPACT OF THE IRD WIN AND COMPARE TO 16M GROSS MARGIN SHORTFALL. ALSO, IF Q4 WAS MINUTIA, JUST DISCLOSE IT AS SOON AS EVIDENT. BUT IT WAS NOT MINUTIA, MAKING IT MORE IMPORTANT IT BE DISCLOSED. - Acquisitions. QTRH has committed up to $400M on acquisitions over 5 years. At a rough multiple range of 1.3x to 1.5x sales for acquisitions, these transactions could produce an incremental annual revenue range of $260M - $310M over the 5 years. Straight lined, that’s $50M - $60M per year from acquisitions alone. In addition, the performance bonuses of both Hill and Watchmaker are tied to executing transactions.
- ITS – ITS infrastructure is on everyone’s lips and IRD is ideally positioned for double digit organic growth.
- Litigation calendar for the balance of 2021. It’s packed. Personal digital assistants (Google, Microsoft and Amazon), LTE (Motorola) and Semiconductors (Micron). All are high potential revenue.
- Apple. A decision will finally be reached this year. While it is impossible to count anything involving the courts as 100%, this is about as close to that as damn is to swearing.
- Financial strength – QTRH’s cash is robust. Interest rates are low, opening debt for acquisition funding. Additionally, with the NCIB back in play, the possibility of replacing $2 shares with an equity raise @$5+ can also come into play for acquisition funding.
THE 5 PRECEDING POINTS HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH WHAT I HAVE BEEN SAYING. NOTHING. TO MAKE AN EXTREME COMPARISON, IT IS LIKE THOSE IGNORING THE DAMAGE TRUMP WAS DOING 9INCLUDING WITHHOLDING/ FALSE INFO RE COVID 19 BATTLE) AND INSTEAD JUST SAYING LOOK AT HOW HIGH THE DJ INDEX IS.
NOTE, I SEE NO REFERENCE AT ALL TO THE POSSIBLE ISSUE OF ABOUT 170K OF RSUs CASHED ON JAN 1. THAT WOULD NOT HAVE LOOKED SO GOOD IF THERE WAS A PRE ANNOUNCMENT JUST 11 DAYS LATER ON SAY JAN 11. IF THERE WAS ONE SAY DEC 27, THE SP MAY HAVE IMPACTED THE RSU VALUE.
Good luck to all. THIS TERM IS LARGELY MEANT FOR TRADERS, NOT INVESTORS.