rfguysd wrote: Since WGL,SEMCO,ENSTAR are utilities that supply natural gas to its customers, heating days would be a quick measure of Altagas’s performance for the quarter when compared to last year. (Altagas uses a 30 year heating day average in the purchase of natural gas for storage to serve its customers)
Since the ultilies are separated by vast distances , I categorized the areas into 3 and calculated the heating days for the 3 regions. Given that the regions have different customer base, one uses a weighted distribution to determine the overall effect of heating days on all 3 regions (similar to center of mass).
Data is taken from the website below.
www.degreedays.net
Since the Washington , Michigan areas have increased heating days as compared to last year’s quarter, I would expect increased revenues from the utilities for this quarter. Enstar shows a decrease but its customer base is significantly lower than that of Washington and Michigan areas.
Customer growth is typically 1% per year.
| | Washington | Detroit | Anchorage |
| 1st qtr-2020 | 1st Qtr-2021 | 1st qtr-2020 | 1st Qtr-2021 | 1st qtr-2020 | 1st Qtr-2021 |
| | | | | | |
| Heating Days | 1717.9 | 2058 | 2812 | 2978.4 | 4674 | 4170.2 |
| | | | | | | | |
| Customers | 1209000 | 313000 | 149000 |
| | | | | | | | |
| Weighted mean Heating days (customer Based) 1st qtr 20 | | | | | | |
| | | | | | |
| | 2186.43 | |
| | | | | | |
| Weighted mean Heating days (customer Based) 1st qtr 2021 | | | | | | |
| | | | | | |
| | 2418.74 | |
| | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | |
| % change Between qtrs 20/21 | | 9.60% | |
| | | | | | |
Results indicate a 9-10% increase in the weighted heat days for Altagas so I would expect a similiar increase in revenue generated from the usage of natural gas.
GLTA
RFguy.