RE:RE:I do not think a JV will happenLooks like my post has generated a mix of replies.
As usual, some folks think I am being fully negative (shocker).
a) The data room no doubt has been open way longer than the past couple months. CGX and Frontera would be asbolutely moronic to have waited until Jan 2021 to open it up, especially if the government is going to force them to drill.
** Hell, Frontera made a deal a couple years ago with way less data. Good companies with solid subsurface staff can make good interpretations and estimations of oil/gas in place with whatever data they can get from a data room. Let's not kid ourselves.
b) Deals get done WAY faster than 6-9 months, especially in a 'hot' basin. My god. All these big companies have specialized teams that do acquisition oopportunities (geology, engineering, drilling/completion, economics, etc). There are also banks involved who act as a middle man to ensure a fair deal gets done. No company would move slowly and kill time. Deals get done very quickly (way faster than most people think... I would know from experience). Additionally, if someone wanted a deal to get finalized, they would make it happen WAY faster than half a year. Also, CGX has no production. No facilities. No nothing. Its not like we are talking a merger between Exxon and BP that requires deep specialized work.
c) Small companies with good track records can drill wells with the support of larger companies (as waitingstill points out). With that, please show me where CGX has done anything in the last 8-10yrs to warrant such respect.
d) Yes, extra staff has been hired (especially in the past 3 months). My belief is that this is only happening because a JV option is rapidly dwindling and they need people in place to drill a well. I really hope I am wrong though, but I am using what I am seeing as evidence to form an option.
- Hell, if anything else, these people CGX has hired should have been in place at least 6-8 months ago. Many companies spend close to a year planning offshore wells (agian from experience) and making sure everything is good to go. If anything, CGX got sloppy and waited till the last minute to do the necessary hiring (likely becuase they thought a JV would likely be in place by now... it is not and now they have to make some personnel moves).
My opions I post here are based on personnel experience in O&G and reality facing small companies like CGX. I know many ppl get upset at this because it destroys a feel good story people are cultivating in their minds. With that, I have recieved many personnel messages from folks who also feel the same way I do. With all this said, I want the same thing everyone does. Let's just hope it happens sonner than later.