Chris007 wrote: Current future strip prices through 2/22 are Lows 60s until about September, and than going into the high 50s in early 2022...ATH is definitely FCF positive if they locked in those prices. The whole point of leaving atleast a portion of production unhedged is to try to capture atleast some potential upside in oil prices, above current strip prices.
Most oil company executives do not have a crystal ball in regard to predicting future prices...ATH's executives sure as hell don't. As per their Q1 hedges, they were very much predicting prices to be lower than they turned out to be.
That being said, I don't want to sound overly harsh, since it is something that is super difficult. If you hedged alot/all of your production for a year or two in late 2019, prior COVID crash, you would have seemed like a genius. Now, if you hedged alot/all your production at much lower price as oil prices keep trending higher, you look like an idiot.
Market timing is not a science, and the vast majority of people can't do it well (asides from a good call once in a while, which could very much be as much due to luck as actual skill)...let alone do it well consistently
filefish wrote: So Eigen, if you were ATH, would you play it safe and hedge the balance of their unhedged production at the WTI futures strip thru 2/22 or beyond, and assume that the Noteholders are impressed enough to do a refi right now.?