RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Cytodyn -financing I think that is what it is. There are enough 'odd' things about this program that concrete milestones are required. Just as an example, a 'study may proceed' letter should be a concrete step forward, it was with the cancer program. Yet somehow it's become another 'odd' aspect of the NASH program simply by not being as concrete as it should be. 24 months ago I thought announcing the start of the trial would be the point this program ignited, I expected it would happen in early 2020, it's crazy we are still waiting for it but I still think it's a massive milestone and so I still think the perceptions of the program will pivot around it. The other odd thing is Grinspoon has had all this time to do more slow science that makes the whole thing look more appealing to us but the market doesn't really have a clinical program to pin it to. 'Odd' is a very unsatisfactory word but it seems to sum up the NASH program atm, at some point that will change. It's really hard to believe that the market won't assign a value to the program once it becomes concrete and unavoidable.
Wino115 wrote: Do you think they are waiting for publication of the protocol so there's some meat around it? It seems like they may also be trying to get EMA on board since we've heard nothing on trial details. Then there is no excuse for them not to put up the glaring valuation discrepancies -- and keep hammering they are past the safety stage, so already along the path.
SPCEO1 wrote: I agree with Scarlett's sentiment but not with his/her proposed actions! And while we are all anxiously awaiting the facts on cancer, we already effectively have them on NASH. So, the stock should be reflecting something for NASH right now if there was any justice. As far as I can tell, however, that is not goign to happen until the company figures out a way to successfully communicate to the investment community that the stock is hideously undervalued relative to other phase III NASH players. It really does not seem like a hard thing to sort out (just put the frreaking valuation comparisons in your corporate presentations for a start!) but the company seems unable or unwilling to do what is needed. Maybe they are aware of more risks to the NASH scenario than we are and that is part of their hesitation to demand to be treated fairly by the investment community? It makes no sense to me. They have just pulled off something quite extraordinary in becoming a phase III NASH player and they should be telling the world about how clever they are to have pulled this off. The NASH discussions in the corporate presentation have gotten much better over time but the company is still not being given any meaningful credit for NASH. To the extent the share price is now above a reasonable valuation for the legacy drugs, which isn't much if anything at all, it is because of cancer.
They really, really, really need to figure out how to get credit for their rather stunning achievement of becoming a phase III NASH player, with a very legitimate shot of success, while expending a very modest sum of shareholder resources in the process. It is a great story and it is not being told or it is being told ineffectively or it is being told by people the investment community has little respect for. Whatever the situation, it should not be that difficult to fix.
Wino115 wrote: Naw...we want the facts -- the facts that will come from these human trials -- to clearly underpin a much higher valuation that will be entierly justified. Maybe even we get to overvalued territory as excitement over commercialization prospects propel it.
Yes, it isn't valued what we think it should be based on some other legitimate comps, but I think the facts will get us there and more, soon. I realize you're probably being sarcastic as all pumps eventually get dumped.
scarlet1967 wrote: Hire their whole IR department, whether we like it or not their investor relation strategy has worked, their short interest is high yes! there are law suits pending yes! but we can't ignore the fact they have successfully managed to pump their valuation with much less so yes pump the deflated valuation of THTX please, giving the undervaluation of the company it's almost unethical, unfair not to PUMP the valuation.
Wino115 wrote: Not to rub salt in our wounds, by CYDY is actually up 20% on their news.
palinc2000 wrote: Everytime I revisit the OO the worst it looks,,,,Awful timing ,terrible terms ,unimaginative , permanent long term damage to long term shareholders ,,,
Wino115 wrote: Hire their CFO, he understands a fleece ;)
palinc2000 wrote: They did the deal with only ONE instutition,,,,,,,,,,The deal is definitely much better for CYDY and shareholdsc in spite of the high interest rate than TH s deal ,,,....which cost tens of millions to sharehoders due to dilution amd which will cost possibly tens of millions with the exercise of the warrants
SPCEO1 wrote: That is a really ugly interest rate on that CYDY convert but given the crazy high strike price, I think you could argue it was a better deal than the OO.
The Odious Offering was a historically bad deal. I have been at the investing game for 42 years and it was certainly one of the worst i have ever seen. One aspect of the deal that was a head scratcher was the warrants not coming due until after the convertible comes due. If you were going to offer such outlandishly attractive terms on the warrant, why not then have it come due before the convertible in case you need the extra money.to pay off the convert? I think Palin may have pointed this out previously, but it is just another boneheaded aspect of the OO. That being said, if I understand it correctly, the warrants do not trade so you can only access the cash tied up in the warrant by exercising them. So, my guess is that each quarter going forward (2Q21 and onward), we may see some small amount of them convert as the only way someone can get actual money out of the warrant is to exercise them and then sell the shares. While institutional investors in the deal will likely be holding onto those warrants until maturity, retail investors may just want to turn them into cash sooner rather than later as they likely are not fully aware of what they own and they probably will not like something sitting on their account statement without ever moving higher (I assume they would be priced at zero on customer statements since there is no trading in them). So, I would not be surprised if they picked up small amounts of new equity capital most quarters as some warrants convert into equity just to be able to get at the cash tied up in them.
Given all the hiring they are doing, they may need the extra cash!
Wino115 wrote: I looked at your link just to see what amazingly high interest rate they paid. I was surprised to see whomever the buyer is only gets 10% interest! Money's cheap these days I guess.... and with a strike price massively out of the money (3x of current price) at a level the share's never seen! Cheap money indeed.