RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:POG below 1700$Research67 wrote: I have to admit, I struggle with the concept that Q1 is the perceived weakest quarter and look forward to acquiring the knowledge to understand this better. With the recovery process taking up to 200 days and the most tonnage and gold stacked Pryor to a new quarter as of December 31 2020, does it not seem like Q2 would be the weaker quarter, with stacking restarting in early March? In other words, I'm trying to have a better understanding of the 200 day cycle, does it peek quickly then taper off? Does the temperature of the pad affect the good absorption rate, and what does the look like. If nothing more, my questions answer why guidance is weighted towards the second half of 2021. Having sad that, upper guidance is 200k for the year, so one would assume they must produce 30-35k (maybe even a little better) in Q1 and Q2 to have a chance at 200k for the year. We'll have pieces to the puzzle this coming week.
I welcome any and all thoughts on the matter (bear or bull)
All the Best
Hi Research67,
I don't know how long you've been following Victoria, but to give you a bit of insight into the recovery process, John McConnell is on the record by previously stating that there is 80% recovery after 45 days and full recovery at 150 days. More recently he has extended full recovery to 200 days, but certainly recovery is heavily weighted towards the first few months - perhaps 75% after 60 days.
I've been doing a bit of modelling based on the following recovery rates:
| Month | Rec % |
| 1 | 27% |
| 2 | 27% |
| 3 | 18% |
| 4 | 13% |
| 5 | 8% |
| 6 | 4% |
| 7 | 2% |
| 8 | 1% |
| Total | 100% |
Of course these percentages are only guestimates based on company commentary and past results, but if I apply these rates going back a couple of quarters based on actual tonnes and grade for 2020 and assuming delivery of one million tonnes per month at a grade of 0.78 and recovery of 76% to the end of Q3, increasing to 1.1 million tonnes for Q4, I come up with the following Q4/20 and 2021 quarterly projections for ounces produced.
| Q4/20 | 41,620 |
| Q1/21 | 29,614 |
| Q2/21 | 44,898 |
| Q3/21 | 55,343 |
| Q4/21 | 60,100 |
| '21 Tot | 189,955 |
This is the mid-point of 2021 guidance and so I will be comparing actual quarterly numbers with these to see if the company is on track to meet guidance.
There was a bit of stacking on the HLP in January, so I estimated 100k tonnes for Jan.
Although I only just recently made these detailed estimates, this was my guestimate of quarter-by-quarter 2021 production after Victoria issued their guidance for this year:
2021 Quarterly Forecast - March 1