RE:Upside/downside, a perpetually bad industry, valuationWell I certainly agree with the majority of your article that I read carefully, the rest I'm not sure about.
Management has stated they can't believe the share price is below $5, and has stated they would like to use free cash flow to buy back shares.
On the basis that the incredible wall of cash coming in 2021 is purchased buying back meaningful share volumes, which is likely to occur until such time as the price is significantly above today's value, I suppose the ultimate value will be inversely proportional to the amount of time it takes to reach a reasonable stock price.
So the ultimate price would be higher if it stayed at the current price longer, and they were able to retire 10+% of the outstanding shares every quarter.
I think $6 would be a reasonable target if cash flow was not used to retire shares in meaningful quantities.
$10 is a reasonable target if we can retire 25% of the shares outstanding.
I am quite confident that the act of the company continously acquiring shares in the market will act as a strong upword drive on a thinly traded stock, and such drive will continue for well past $4 without any slowdown.