RE:RE:RE:11.73$ price target on GIII I would argue that the ESG theme is either close to max or getting over the hump and heading lower. yes it is a lovely idea but for alot of fund managers it doesn't meet the required Rates of return. Aside on the ESG front, GIII's re-refining at 50% margins, the project is an aboslute no brainer, especially with 3rd party (Stantec) validation.
I was a holder for a long time, waiting for the horse to get running but after consistent, and yes i absolutely agree that they have de-risked quite substantially. But at this point, there is a massive unknown.
1) expiration of BDC term sheet for up to 50% construction financing expired 31 march 2020. there has been no news (at all) regarding renewal or extension of the financing. The last financing update that i was able to find was 12 Jan 2021 and it was just the following:
"Project level financing talks are continuing with private equity and debt firms; impact investment firms and traditional banking groups for both the USGC and Alberta facilities"
If we assume the worst regarding the EDC term sheet, then GIII has to find a replacement financier. and it is tough to find a worthy replacement of a gov-backed financier. The notion that they include private equity in their discussions means that their financing option range is wearing thin, and may end up going with an equity dilution to get this thing going.
What it should of been was "completion of private placement"
When your news headling is an update on corporate financing and then turns out to be only a quick passover, it can definitely make one ponder the reality of what's going on behind the scenes. The project was supposed to be up and running by 2020, and yet here we are 1/3rd of the way through 2021 and not one shovel has hit the ground yet.
don't consider what im saying as a naysayer or even worse a shortseller attack of the stock. I so deeply want this project to go through and become another canadian success story. but my patience is wearing thin and time keeps clicking. And if it is true that the stock will never reach the low 30c range again, im alright with that.