RE:RE:RE:RE:Don should tone it down a touchI will do that Doug, and will post the reply. I understand that the plants are not highly technical in nature on a relative basis, but if you look at the development timeline on their investor presentation webpage you'll notice that they are forecasting 1 - 1.25yr from shovel in the ground to commissioning (Dunmore breakground Q2 2021, commissioning Q3 2022 and GP breakground Q4 2021, commissioning Q4 2022). That is the forecasted timeframes, which no doubt lean more towards ideal circumstances rather than high levels of contingency, given Don's inclination to be glass half-full. In addition, people should appreciate that the estimated buildout costs are $50M per location. CMC only sports a market cap of $300M today, and notably was only $30M mere months ago. Raising $2B over five years is no small feat for a sizeable enterprise, never mind a very modest one. A strong buiness model does not equate to money being thrown at you, as banks are overtly aware of risk/reward, whether lending directly to us, or alternately a JV partner. Lastly I would offer that the $1M JV fee is not a lot of money in today's world. All that said, I do appreciate I'm coming across as a Negative Nancy, which I am not, I am again only hopefuly that Don do a bit less talking and a bit more walking. We have lots to focus on in the immediate term, and plenty of positives to talk about right now. I personally will be convinced that my monye is 'safe' with CMC if they commission the Aldersyde expansion in Q1 2021 on schedule and budget. If timelines start to slip, they I will revisit my thesis. Again, I am hopeful to be a longtime and proud shareholder. Also, I thank you and respect you for the civil discourse ;) Sadly missing on many boards.
I'm not sure why there is so much doubt in the JV, especially as they've already paid Cielo 1 million dollars in fees that I believe they would have to walk away from should Aldersyde meet its target. If these plants work they will have absolutely no problem acquiring capital and Don has indicated the company plans to build out the remaining plants beyond the JV using primairly or entirely debt financing. Once you have a successful money raising equity through debt really isn't an issue.
And I do think it would be a fair question to ask "why do you think you can build 40 plants in such a short period of time", but the counterpoint to that is how much information do you have about what goes into building their specific plants? Don seems to think plants can be built in a year, and that building multiple plants at the same time isn't an issue. Like I said it's a fair question and one that should probably be asked. I think it would be great if you sent an email to IR just stating that 40 plants in 5 years seems optimistic, so you're wondering what the timelines are to build out an individual plant as well as any other information that could give investors confidence that this is a feasible target. If you do make sure to post the response here :D
catchascatchcan wrote:I'm not saying it's not possible, but from an execution standpoint, it's not an easy feat. 'Just' finding partners, raising capital, building out plants... From a critical eye perspective, even the 9 JVs we've signed to date really aren't worth anything more than the paper they're written on until the money is raised. I just hope he keeps it nice and tidy that's all. Too many a small company has fallen victim to thinking that people want to hear plans of grandeur