RE:RE:Thoughts on the 1st Qtr -21 ... good , bad or indifferentRFguy.
You have the perfect read of the situation and this is exactlly what I'm thinking and $ 186 M to $ 218 M is what we are expecting from the Petrogas acqisition.Will it be that number ?
It is everybody's guest
Just want to add the second answer from the investor relation I received but d'ont beleive his number and over stated :
«Hi Paul, so the $7,917MM revenue in 2020 is pro-forma as if we had acquired Petrogas on Dec 31, 2019. (My mistake as I had left off pro-forma from the email below) For the period from close of the transaction through 2020YE, Petrogas has generated ~$143MM in revenues. So if you take the 7,917 less our reported revenue and add back the $143MM that gets to the Petrogas revenue number ~
$2.5 billion. Is that clear?»
Just think that $ 2,5 B top line revenue is way over stated considering the EBITDA ALa is expecting from this transaction.
Overall pretty bullish on ALA going forward !
rfguysd wrote: Allow me to add a bit more color to the Petrogas acquisition and add further to some of the comments and analysis already provided . I do want to go back to the presentation that was provided by Randy on Dec10….pg30.
1)” Over the past three years (2017-2019), Petrogas’ average annual normalized EBITDA has been ~$186 million with the trailing twelve months normalized EBITDA at June 30, 2020 of ~$218 million.” .
How does one interpret this statement? This is what I think he was implying using some algebra to intrepret. Corrections are welcome.
| Year | EBITDA | | Percent increase |
| 2017 | 169 | | |
| 2018 | 185 | | 9.5% |
| 2019 | 203 | | 9.7% |
| | | | |
| ave | 185.7 | | |
| | | | |
| 2020 | 219.2 | | 8.0% |
| 2021 | 236.8 | | 8.0% |
Year 2017,18,19 average is 186M and 12 month trailing from June30 is 218M.
2)” AltaGas estimates the forward 2021 normalized EBITDA will be ~$185 million, plus upwards of $30 million in operational synergies.” Is this an understatement? Underestimate? Is there such a thing as being too conservative given that Randy already stated June30 2020 12 month trailing was 218M?
GLTA
RFguy