RE:RE:RE:RE:FDA approved Gilead’s AD This is BA’s report at the time.
On 'Trop' of the World: Updating Our Model to Reflect Transformative IMMU Trop-2 ADC Deal Our view: Yesterday evening GILD announced a $21B acquisition of IMMU, primarily for their lead asset Trovaldy, and we are now incorporating sales and related opex from the transaction into our model. Based on our new ests., we see $4B out-year probability-weighted WW sales opportunity for Trovaldy and up to $6.5B+ in total annual potential. While the high price tag for the acquisition reduces our price tgt very slightly, to $82 from $84, successes with the ADC in future lines/indications would have the potential to generate upside returns, and the re-invigorated narrative and growth visibility catalyzed by the deal should enable shares to start better tracking towards what we continue to see as fair value in the $80s. Key points: Our detailed impressions of the GILD/IMMU deal and its impact to GILD can be found here. The key assumptions in our buildout and model integration are as follows; overall, our est. 2021-2029 EPS CAGR for GILD would double from 3% pre-deal to 6% with IMMU incorporated and updated remdesivir ests. • We see $4B in annual out-year WW sales opportunity for Trovaldy on a probability-weighted basis; and $6.5B out-year non-probability weighted potential across breast cancer, bladder cancer, and lung cancer. • Our WW peak sales est. in TNBC is $1.5B, and we assume a very high likelihood of achieving this opportunity, with peak penetrations of 40-50% among metastatic/advanced pts, which assumes some movement into earlier lines. • Overall, we assume a blended PoS of 69% across different tumor types, including HR+ BC (70% 3rd-line, 55% 2nd-line) and bladder cancer (65% PoS in CPI-progressing pts, with ESMO data likely to reaffirm). We are more conservative in NSCLC, where there is less data, assuming a 20% PoS and 2025 launch.