DOD reaction, State of Alaska, and Building from scratchGood afternoon,
Another gray cloudy day in the Seattle area. Had clam chowder and fresh bread for lunch. Then a nap with the cat on the shoulder. Answering Pip's question got me to thinking.
What would DOD reaction be if China cut off sales of REE? Well, for about 18 to 24 months it would change nothing. That is DOD length of reserve of REE. But in that 18 to 24 months three supplier would be funded to be on line by the end of the reserve. As I am looking at the players, that suspicious part of my mind, is asking has Lynas and MP been setup to fail?
MP built a billion dollar separation plant, but can't get it to finish separation. It only does 90% of the separation. Is there a missing piece? Because MP is talking about building a new plant or just the missing piece to the one they have now?
Lynas is doing plans to build a plant in TX. They have DOD money to come up plans and cost to build it. That is all. Those plans would have to be approved by the EPA. How likely is that happen with Biden in the white house?
Then there is Ucore. It is not asking the USG for a billion dollars, which is a line item on a spending bill. It asking for 35 million from a state agency, not the DOD, DOE, or other parts of the USG. Would they be more likely to get EPA approval. In a word yes, They would be using only 10% of the acids needed to make SX work by volume. Easiler to control.
Now have any of you heard of a company that is building a REE separation plant that is big enough to take over suppling the USG? We have three player, two want to build a regular SX plant that cost anywhere from 100 million to one billion dollars. Then we have Ucore's RSX plant that cost around 35 million. Which one is more likely to get built?
State of Alaska is pushing for the building of Ucore's SMC. I would like to remind all you folks that this is the state that got the federal government to build a bridge to nowhere that the state still maintains in the hope that they can build a road and dig three tunnels to use. They want this as a way to make money off the mineral weath of the state.
Building from scratch: For fourteen years of the time I worked for the Navy, I did one job. I cut out reactor compartments from US sub and sealed them up and shipped them off to Hanford, WA. The first three I was rewriting the plans with the engineers almost most daily. It took 15 months start to finish on the first one. By the time I got to thirtyfifth one we had it down to four mouths start to finish. Ucore is building a RSX plant from scratch. How many time will Ucore have to stop and fix/change the design? By the time they build the thrid one they will have it down to a fine science. Yes, Pip the third one.
You all have a great weekend.
Dragon