Value of the embedded option - rough calculationsI tried to do a rough calculation of what the value should hypothetically be for the cancer opportunity. It's very rough calculations using a Black Scholes model. My method is to just look at a simple 5 year progression using those Barclays numbers for some of the cancer indications I posted before. I think these numbers are highly conservative. I assume a $15mil capital cost for each indication (it's probably 15mil for the total) and revenue's in following years of $0, $115, 300, 600, 1000. We know some of these may be above or below that. If I use a 65% discount rate, then each indication has a call option value today of $.44. So if you think there will be all 5 indications then the call option on those would be worth around $2.20, or about 55-60% of the current price. IF you think it may be 2, then the option for those indications is worth about $.88 today.
It's pretty rough, but gives some indication of what those kind of cash flows could be worth as an option value today. I think we'd have to get much further down the road with data to see investors factor that in, but the discount rate should also drop as they prove it up and increase those call option values. In either case, depending on what you think is in the price for the HIV franchise, the rest is cancer and NASH. I think NASH is in for 0, so rest is cancer. Maybe you have the call option value of one indication, but definitely not more than that.