RE:RE:The $30 Is The Today Price, Not the Future Price! I agree that the share prices mentioned are fantastical and wildly unlikely. But they're based on at least vaguely reasonable assumptions (using the best data available). To answer your points:
1) "There will be a minimum 15% fail rate on well drilling."
FilPro mentions figures for 60 wells and 70 wells. Use the 60 wells figure ($250/share) if you want to factor in a 15% fail rate.
2) "remember also the millions of warrants coming at $3.50."
FilPro factored the warrants into his figures (the 79.4 million share figure includes the warrants triggered at $3.50).
3) "not all wells will produce at even near the numbers that are being thrown around."
Probably true, and there's also the depletion rate to keep in mind. Nonetheless, in defense of FilPro, he's basing his numbers on the publicly available
figures based on $275 per mcf (see slide 21), and was updating them based on Robert Rohlfing's figure of $1,100.
https://desertmountainenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/DME-Investor-Presentation-03292021-FINAL-.pdf
It's all probably pie in the sky, but FilPro's post does not deserve being dismissed out of hand.