Summary Quarterly Financial Metrics 2020-21These are provided in the table below along with my forecast for Q1 of 2021, including those statistics such as restructuring that we already know.
I assume that Q1/21 will be somewhat weaker than that of Q4/20.
As revenues in Q1/21 were more than 15 % below those of Q1/20, I assume that CEW grant wiil match that of Q2 of 2020 ( $4.5 million ).
I assume no change in SGA for Q1 but note that the new CEO has reaffirmed that SGA savings will be $8.5 m in 2021 and has moved aggressively to make those cuts in Q1 of 2021.
That is to say, if successful, SGA should begin declining again in Q2, reaching less than $10 million in Q4 of 2021 ( $40 m per year ).
I assume, that with an excess of Receivables over Payables og $25 m , the new system will generate $7.5 million in cash via conversion of receivables to cash in 2021.
Considering all of these interacting variables, I expect that debt will be less than $25 million and perhaps less than $20 m by exit 2021.
With the ongoing gains in digital conversion, valuation perspectives will increase as each quarter of 2021 reports along the lines expected, reflecting reductions in the debt overhang and revenues showing incipient growth.
| | | | | | | | | |
| 2020 Quarter | Revenue | Restruc | Debt In | Debt Out | CEWS | Debt Change | SGA | debt Interest |
| | | | | | | | | |
| Q1 | 77.4 | 0.7 | 77.1 | 79.4 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 17.3 | 2.1 |
| Q2 | 63.9 | 0.3 | 79.4 | 70.1 | 4.6 | -9.3 | 15.5 | 1.9 |
| Q3 | 57.4 | 1.1 | 70.1 | 59.9 | 2.8 | -10.2 | 13.3 | 1.8 |
| Q4 | 60.6 | 0.7 | 59.9 | 46.1 | 1.8 | -13.8 | 12.1 | 1.5 |
| Debt Change | | | | | 10.8 | -31.0 | | |
| 2021 Quarter | | | | | | | | |
| Q1 | 57.0 | 3.9 | 46.1 | 40.1 | 4.5 | -6.0 | 12.1 | 1.3 |