RE:I really hope it's just whales wanting to load up cheaperThePower wrote: This constant rise through the midday, only to be brought down right at the last hour of close is really annoying.
For the past weeks every time this goes to 0.62 or beyond, it gets sold off at the end of the day. Who (asides from the shorts) is benefitting from this stagnant price action?
Seems like it is being kept down for larger buyers to accumulate more IMO. No reason for us to be down this much today and hitting short term lows after positive comments by McWhirter. As soon as the buying starts after his comments the ask "lots" at .61 start to increase in size and absorb all the buying not allowing the stock to rise. Once the buying dies down, it starts getting sold off and large ask orders start appearing. Similar pattern most days, doesnt really seem to just be retail investors, especially as we've been having these higher then normal volumes recently... something is definitely up.
I invested in a company a while back: GSI.V at $0.20 and they had similar price action before we saw a large rally to over $1.
Bottom line (for me) is that fundamentals are solid (and this was also my reasoning behind investing in GSI.V and why that stock went up). This company could easily be worth $100M+ market cap today with their current level of sales growth and backlog. I compare it to some of my other similar holdings (micro/small cap growth stocks) and CVX is extremely undervalued in almost all cases
The CEO has done a great job building this company with all the contracts they have been getting and smart/beneficial acquistions they've made. He seems like the type of CEO that knows how to get things done and run a public company without diluting shareholders unnecessarily, and I have been very impressed with him so far and continue to expect good things. Even in this COVID environment CVX is still anticipating 50% YoY growth, and without COVID it prob would have been over 80%.
CVX with such a low market cap ($37M) and has so much going for it in terms of sales, backlog, innovative product, strong management team with high insder ownership. Just feels like nobody really knows about this company and so "larger players" are loading up before we eventually start getting some analyst coverage and more attention.
Once we start hitting $50M+ sales (which I expect will be 2021 or 2022) and if backlog continues to grow steadily this stock has the potential to be a 10 bagger from these levels IMO. I look at XBC.TO (another one of my large holdings). They currently have a very similar backlog to CVX ($100M) with about $55M in current annual sales and projecting to see continued strong sales growth. They are worth $700M (after a steep guidance cut not due to COVID) and a few months ago were worth over $1.5B. Compared to CVX currently at $36.8M (not including recent financing). Its crazy to think a SUPER high growth company such as CVX is barely trading at 1x current revenue, when many other companys in similar industries, with similar financials, and similar growth prospects trade at 10x or more (XBC, GRN, PYR, GSI, just to name a few that I hold).
I guess cement isn't as sexy as a pure cleantech company (although CVX's product and the way they apply it is more environmentally friendly then their competitors - refer to the investor presentation on their website)... But you know what I think is sexy? almost $100M backlog and expectations of that to grow.
The other downside I think the market see's for CVX is their revenue model. And that is because it is NOT recurring in nature, and I think thats why the market is pricing the stock lower as well, but CVX is getting punished way too hard IMO. With so much many potential applications for their products and such an enormous market, they should have no issues continuing to get consistent contracts for DECADES to come.
Also, with all the tailwinds we have right now with Bidens stimulus package, it seems like there is a good chance CVX will continue to get exponentially more contracts and of larger size, as they can support up to a $180M/year business RIGHT NOW and I'm sure the $23M in cash they have now will allow them to increase that. Another large contract could be announced any day which could creat a large rally, as we've seen in the recent past. The demard in their product is definitely there.
Q4 should be good even with it being slow season and having the guidance reduction due to COVID (at least its not their fault - lots of other companies getting a pass on this!), and I'm very much looking forward to it. Maybe once the market see's how successful CVX was in growing their sales (even under these tough times), they might realize how successful they will be once COVID is past us. Based on what the CEO has told us in his guidance, it looks like revenue will be at least $10M+ and ebitda of at least $1M+ for Q4 which will be record high and put us at over $32M in revenue for the year. And to think this will be the third year in a row of greatly improving sales while getting closer to profitability (probably would have been proftitable this year if it wasnt for COVID with $40M+ revenue!).