RE:MY OWN THOUGHTS ON THE DEALkinda what i'm thinking as well, except I have a slightly more negative take on it viewed from the perspective of Air Canada
1. Neutral - dilution is bad but Government wouldn't take this portion of the deal if they didn't think it would appreciate.
2. Negative - money loaned to pay back customers with lost bookings - they were "borrowing" money before from customers by withholding refunds, they could debase that borrowing by increasing air fares so credits worth less than before, now they gotta return their interest free borrowings to trade with a borrowing where they do have to pay an interest expense. PR has already been negative, refunding funds now is not going to help them look any better.
3. Negative - Buying more planes that they can't fully utilize due to travel restrictions, gonna be bad return on investment in the short term, plus they are funding this through debt where they have to pay low interest
4. Negative - This is basically a transfer of funds from Air Canada to Chorus.
5. Neutral/Positive - with resumption of regional flights they can't possibly cut any more jobs, it's a positive if the government highlights and considers this as a win or concession from Air Canada, from air canada's side it's one less thing they had to give up.
6. Neutral - they had enough cash to last until next year, raising it this early why restrictions are still on doesn't make that much sense.
Overall the deal doesn't make sense for Rosseau to take right now... unless you speculate that Air Canada has information provided from the government about the rough timing of when travel restrictions are going to be lifted. The only way this deal actually makes sense is if the travel restrictions are going to be lifted soon. I'm thinking vaccine passports.. and removal of 14 day quarantine.
My guess is some time after the 3rd wave, gov't is going to end travel restrictions with implentation of some sort of vaccine passports system for international travel and also remove the 14 day quarantine.
This deal just seems way too negative for Air Canada for Rosseau to take unless there's something fishy about AC's balance sheet which i don't suspect, so the only logical explanation is Air Canada knows this is ending soon and needs these funds for ramp up.