How about something like this. We have been in different states of lock down across this country and the vaccine is just rolling out. Canada is small potatoes in terms of world oil consumption, and are global impact is more on the heavy oil supply side that US refiners are looking for.
The price has traded down, because we are in the refinery transition season, and shoulder season for consumption.
Opec is producing 2 million boe less than the market needed at this last meeting, and is bring back production slowly while demand is increasing rapidly.
I expect we are about a month away from real demand upticks, but OPEC just recently increased their oil forcast, and they will increase it very soon again, people will not put up with another summer of lock downs, and everyone i know is getting the vaccine.
Stimulas is pooring into the system, USA is down 2 million boe a day, we are in for a bull run.
ARC will like generate 300-350 million in FCF in Q1 which will likely take their debt below 2 billion and fund attachie from FCF in Q3-Q4 setting up a better 2022.
TOU will not be able to produce the kind of FCF that ARX produces, and the stock will be 12 dollar by mid summer is my guess.
160 million cost reduction should be a dollar increase in stock just for accomplishing this. Way to cheap and it is a solid buy.
IMHO