RE:RE:RE:My account is so red Cane:
My throat is dry just reading your note below. I was there. I started buying into APHA at 16 just prior to the short attack and owned right up until Jan 2021. I had incredible good fortune with WEED having bought a bunch at 28 just prior to the Constellation announcement. Won the lottery and sold at 65 but fell for Vic's wink and his "good thing growing" schtick. Making money in pot stocks was easy!! I had a lot more than 58,000 shares with a dollar cost average in the mid thirteens at the end of two years. At the worst of it (this time last year when APHA hit 2.85) I promised myself if I ever got "close" to where I was I would sell. September 2020 through January 2021 we saw it go to 6 to 8 back to 6...8 to 11 back to 8. There seemed to be a pattern for "most" quarters of a 20 percent haircut after earnings (or outlook) did not meet expectation.
So I sold in the low 11s in January, not prepared for another setback to 8. Not quite the 14 I was hoping for to break even after twenty seven gruelling months...but enough to salvage a decent portfolio of (light) blue chip dividend paying stocks to supplement my retirement income. I live well. I cannot forget that a lot of that money came from the WEED/Constellation winfall.
Of course, it was painful to watch the bump to 17 after earnings...and then the Reddit bump to the shining two minutes above 40.
Then something happened while APHA was trading around 20CDN; CIBC's Zamparo (the lead bear during the last two years) upped the rating to Strong Buy and a target of 28CDN. So I bought 5000 shares in the mid 19s. I was tempted to sell those shares in the mid 20s for a decent little profit, but like others, saw that two seconds at 40 as achievable. To the moon!
So here we are. Fortunately for me, these 5000 shares are not in the "necessity" category and we live well off of a very well balanced portfolio of stock dividends, real estate income, and a defined pension plan. Life is good regardless of where APHA lands on any given day.
There is lots of sound advice being given here. Sometimes I don't like ghost's technical analysis, but there are some significant insights not to be ignored. Commonsense is also giving out some solid free lessons. I appreciate your strong bullish (almost ProfC like) feelings, but also believe av8tr is sounding a good caution. It is a mistake to be blinded too much by all of this...I know, I was. To be completely forthright, I did allow myself to be swayed by some of ProfC's hardcore beliefs in 2019. It is a mistake that cost me tens, if not hundreds of thousands. But it was my greed and my fault and I own it. I am lucky to have come out the other end mostly intact despite missing that crazy run in February. Will lightning strike twice?
I feel a bit hoodwinked by the analysts (once again). I was tempted to sell around 22ish when Stifel changed their outlook about a week before earnings. But I checked CIBC and noted Zamparo was at 28. The day after the QReport they all changed their tune. This should be a loud bell ringer to those here that the analysts are not that much futher along in their analysis. I don't trust them. I don't know how they make a living at it. A blind monkey throwing darts seems to have a better handle on this sector.
Now there is this mixed up merger. Here is my take on events:
1. On 10 Feb 2021 Redditors drive sector prices through the roof, APHA touches 40CDN (Black Swan);
2. Analysts begin upgrading APHA to strong buy with target range of 26 to 36CDN. Even Zamparo's (the pessimist) is 28CDN.
3. Sector in protracted decline.
4. APHA moves its QReport day from typically end of week to a Monday. Usually a sign of strong earnings (usually).
5. Sector still in decline despite some MSOs reporting better than expected and anticipated Schumer announcement.
6. DOW, SPY, and NASDAQ on a tear (primarily FAANG and Tesla).
7. A week before APHA QReport Stifel surprises with a significant downgrade.
8. No other analyst changes their projection.
9. QReport is disappointing.
11. Vote to be held, many shareholders report not receiving package or e-mail but vote goes ahead. 99 percent likely because nil return is counted as yes. Did Tilray not have the same clause? Apparently not. How could these two companies to be eventually have the same CEO not be in synch? Shady or just incompetence? Now sure which one scares me more.
12. "Technical difficulties" cut meeting short. Looks shady, though APHA claims it was phone company glitch.
13. Tilray announces two week delay, but initially offers no explanation, leading to speculation the deal might fall through.
14. BNN misinforms viewers (many shareholders use as source) about the cancel clause. Suggesting APHA pays regardless of who cancels (see attachment). Speculation (rightly or wrongly, but what happens in an information vacuum) runs rampant as to why Tilray delays.
Two multi-billion dollar companies about to merge and they do not have their ducks aligned? That raises a big question mark for me TBH.
So what to do? As I stated, I have a standing 24CDN sell order and if and when we get another FOMO event I will make about 20K. Not nearly what I lost in the last two years, but life goes on and so will I. I will apply those meagre capital gains against a lifetime supply of capital losses. Never, never, never, will I go all in on something like this again. We all had our reasons in 2018/19/20 and there were plenty of folks (on this forum as well) warning about valuations and lack of sustainability. I wish I did not have blinders on. But in the end, all I have to do is look over the fence to ACB and thank the stars I did not hitch to that wagon. It could have been far worse.
Be very careful falling in love with a company and its stock. It does not know, or care, that you own it. I learned some harsh lessons. I lived through the worst of it, and bailed just before the best of it. But I am still standing, still healthy, and just got vaccinated today.
Likely my last post here. Came back to Stockhouse for a bit, but time to move on. All the best to all of you.
CaneIsAbel wrote: I'm in an investment edge taxable account. I have 58,000 shares. My tax free savings account I have 75,000 dollars in Nio at 36.42. I have no rrsp or anything of that sort in Aphria. I cashed my rrsp years back im allowed to add a big amount this year. I suppose I would to offset taxes. My account is bleeding red since the February high. So if you're ever stressed think of Cain and know that I'm with you. We're here for the long haul