People are not taking this seriously Frustrating and frightening': Ontario COVID-19 modelling data suggests 6-week lockdown as one of the 'only ways to flatten the curve'
New modelling of the COVID-19 situation in Ontario shows that extending the stay-at-home order to six weeks, with 100,000 vaccines doses being administered each day, is the "only way to flatten the curve."
"What the models are suggesting now...is that the case growth is going to be much less substantial and if the public measures extend for six weeks instead of four weeks, we really blunt the second round of growth as part of this wave," Dr. Adalsteinn Brown, co-chair of the Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table, explained on Friday.
"You can also see with strong public health measures and a longer...period for six weeks, we actually would get down to a much, much, much lower level of cases."
Dr. Brown, saying that Ontario COVID-10 progress is "frustrating and frightening," highlighted that if the stay-at-home order was not put into place, the modelling suggests case growth could have increased to possibly 30,000 a day.
He added that the early indication is that the current measures are "not working as well as we might like."
"There's no silver bullet in any of this, there's no single measure we can put in place that would bring us down to that green line," Dr. Brown said.
Dr. David Williams, Ontario’s chief medical officer of health, said that he is concerned that the public is not taking the situation "seriously" and strict adherence to the rules is necessary.
The co-chair of the Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table explained that what will help Ontario hopefully reach the best-case modelling scenario for cases is doubling-down on vaccination in highest risk communities, making sure workplaces are safe, including effective enforcement of rules. Dr. Brown said more benefit in terms of paid sick leave would be helpful, including something that is easier for essential workers to access.