Status QuoI am long here and own a ton of shares, however reality is what it is.
The sp at the moment is trending down daily again approaching our most recent low - and on low volume.
Past experience has shown us that Q covid revenue doesn't move the needle very far - read: Q3 ,Q4 as they provide the most relevant comparison. Undoubtedly Q1 will be the largest quarter ever, probably $4-5 million. However, that doesn't mean we suddenly shoot to $1.00 and beyond - the market already knows today that Q1 will be huge but its clearly not baking any excitement into the sp. Check with Clarus.
The only way this goes forward to the areas we hope is if we see some good fresh news - affiliations/mergers/collaborations/marketing strategy on the Aristotle front as that is the future of this company and what we waited 20 years for. We were promised that the $ 7 million pp cash up and fresh covid revenue would lead to an aggressive marketing program - that should have been specific, immediate and planned for during the 3 month silence lapse we had - but it wasn't. Now, with the physican link requirement to Aristotle as a test, is it the intention of that marketing program to promote CARE and the AVRP program starting in July when CARE is purchased since Aristotle is embedded in it?? Will the marketing program in the interim simply entail the more frequent reposting of older news on social media read: Inkedin, FB, Twitter etc. and that was the strategy all along? Clearly, from here forward, the only catalyst for us will be fresh news as only that generates excitement. And that involves actual signings rather than optimistic rhetoric from the company.
The $473000 cancer intake for 2020 is the bright light in all this and I wish Tripp had talked about the source of that revenue during the CC as its our only non covid revenue and it makes sense that it should increase in 2021. This is the tidbit that provides support for any small optimism - lets face it, investors need only look at the tangible results a la Quarterly reports and determine at a glance if the talk measured up to the revenue - and the next few quarterly glances will either confirm or deny Tripp's optimism. One day, after the last covid dollar has been received, we will be left with one asset and that is Aristotle - yes the AVRP might generate related spin off income but that is uncertain.
The Clarus downgrade hurt - going from $4 to $1.25 is simply not good news for any stock and it can't be candy coated. Institutional buyers don't get excited seeing that type of downgrade and are less inclined to buy, leaving it to retail. Analyst forecasts can turn around in a hurry, however we need a credibility boost like a large workplace employer or the like to sign on as that would serve to validate Aristotle's merit - clearly Atkinson knows about the upcoming Q1 covid revenue but we still got the downgrade.
Something has to give here - we were led to believe there would be exciting corporate developments announced on the Aristotle front - time to bring them out.