The 2020 reserve reports for each of these Cardium producers use similar price decks and therefore are a good point of comparison. I am taking the NPV numbers discounted at 10% which already include reclamation costs, then deducting the net debt and dividing the balance by the shares outstanding. I believe this is the best indication of relative value. I have compared these numbers with the current share price to establish relative undervaluation. The results are as follows:
PDP. TP. TPP
IPO. $1.02. $1.94. $3.50
$.53. 52%. 27%. 15%
OBE. $3.70. $6.28. $9.78
$1.50. 40%. 24%. 15%
YGR. $1.36. $10.58. $15.29
$1.10. 81%. 10%. 7%
BNE. $2.64. $9.91. $16.55
$3.52. 133%. 36%. 21%
All of these stocks are using conservative price decks that are consistent across companies and are about 30% below current prices for 2021. They are all undervalued but I wanted to highlight that some are much worse than others. If you did the same analysis for the senior producers, not one would have a stock price below their PDP book value.
Any comments appreciated