RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RealityCheck4U here - after 3+ years as TH holderNo I am not saying that. I guess you haven't actually studied and read the various pre-clinical research they have done with SORT1+. It does not "cure virtually all types of cancers". Their program only cures a very specific type of tumor - one that overexpresses Sortilin. And that is mostly overepxressed in metastatic cancers and solid tumors. Even at that, depending on the tumor, it may only work on 20-70% of the patients that take their drug. The list of the cancer types is listed in their presentation -- go take a read. If you understood how it worked, you would understand how it, like other ADCs and cancer targeting therapies, work for multiple types of tumors depending on the targeting mechanism. It just so happens research by many other scientists -- not THTX labs -- have highlighted that Sortilin is a highly prospective target given where it's overexpresses and the role it plays in cell scavenging and membrane introduction.
I think anyone who would look at all the pre-clinical work they have presented would say there is pretty clearly not a zero percent chance it works. It worked wonderfully in all those cancer cell xenografts and in specific cancers in animals that were tested, which is what all the other researchers are also doing. It certainly showed it was very safe as far as spilling over into other tissue and causing neutropenia. As for efficacy, we will learn. Typical Phase 1 success rates are low since humans are far more complext than tumor cells and mice. But it's not zero. My own uneducated guess is it's around 25-30% right now.
But what I showed you is how a large global sell-side firm values companies exactly like THTX. Those are not my valuation models and assumptions. That is how a highly respected biotech analysis group values oncology opportunities. One can look at examples from ADCs that have come on the market targeting similar types of cancers to see how large the opportunity is. Those are their revenue numbers, not mine. Those are their valuation models, not mine. The point is to show the possibilities should we see success. Success will be that the drug is shown to be safe and effective -- it prolongs the treatement window, survival, and hopefully reduces tumors while under treatment and stops further metasticizing or the cancer. You do realize they are just using standard off-the-shelf generic toxins that every doctor knows and uses now, right?
The toxins are not dangerous given they've already been used for years. They have perfected a targeting mechanism for very specific types of tumors, and they may also prove their actual peptide interacts in such as way as to foil the vascular network a growing cancer needs. We will see with the data. But if it shows success in Phase 1 and into Phase 2, analysts will then start looking at what cancer tumors it works well on, how large those markets are, whether this is a new approach that is working in an unmet need, so in high demand, and then put those revenue numbers in to their models. You can take it from there.
But, you know, you owe it to this board to give us educated posts that have shown you at least understand what you're talking about. I'm not sure why you want to keep embarrassing yourself by not at least reading and understanding their presentation or watching the videos they post. They answer all your questions so you don't have to take it from me or anyone else. But to post while being ignorant of the facts is a waste of time.
houbahop wrote: Wino, do I understand you are implying you put a non-zero probability of TH researchers finding the cure to virtually all types of cancers (besides bones and brain cancers) and faster than all the other research teams in the field?
Everyone has their own assumptions when valuating a project.
But to make its conclusion realistic, the assumptions can't be that strong.
As in the past, and TH chart will confirm this, I believe there is a potential for some people to invest in the EXPECTATIONS that something valuable will be discover by the company. But also, according to management track record, I believe it will end in deceit.
Future will tell...