RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Greg Newman view on ALA ....I would agree that ALA is being punished for its ‘lack of green”.And yes, selling its’ green assets was bad timing, unfortunate.
Analysts look at the rear-view mirror much too often and don’t see what is ahead. How does one account for the 200M + additional ebitda from the additional 37% of Petrogas. That certainly makes ALA ….. less of a utility and more of a hybrid in 2021.
Why not partner with Brookfield / Nextera / Enbridge and develop a green project for customers of WGL or Semco? Sell the green electrical power to its customers and the excess green can be used to make H2 for its heating base.
If I were a betting man….Biden will introduce a carbon tax after the midterm primaries and that will change some of the economics of green.
Just wondering .....what legacy will Randy leave?
GLTA
RFguy
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Great post rfguysd! I would also add that the Utility component is NOT green, and is therefore subject to a discount. Also, its revenue stream from the so-called Utility side is lopsided, giving it only two quarters of decent revenue per year. It is a shame that they divested of their green assets but understandable given the position bad management put them in. rfguysd wrote:Adding to what marketsense stated, Altagas is not a utility, nor a midstream but a hybrid. Analysts should stop calling it a utility and I hope our community does too. One analyst has stated that the SP should reflect both , PE of a midstream and PE of a utility.
PE midstream (ave) =12x
PE utility(ave) =18x
Notice the revenue for 2021 increasing due mainly to the midstream.
| | Revenue | Split | Split |
| Actual Reported Revenue | | | | | | |
| 2019 | revenue | 5.5 | Billion | 24% | Midstream | 1.32 | Billion |
| | | | | | 76% | Utility | 4.18 | Billion |
| | | | | | | | | |
| 2020 | revenue | 5.6 | Billion | 30% | Midstream | 1.68 | Billion |
| | | | | | 70% | Utility | 3.92 | Billion |
| | | | | | | | | |
| Estimated by comparison | | | | | | |
| 2021 | revenue | 6.125 | Billion | 33% | MidStream | 2.0026 | Billion |
| | | | | | 67% | Utility | 4.1220 | Billion |
| | | | | | | | | |
Note the increasing midstream ebitda.
| | Ebitda | Split | Split |
| Actual Reported EBITDA | | | | | | |
| 2020 | ebitda | | 1.31 | Billion | 39% | Midstream | 0.5109 | Billion |
| | | | | | 60% | Utility | 0.786 | Billion |
| | | | | | | | | |
| Estimated by Altagas | | | | | | | |
| 2021 | revenue | | 1.5 | Billion | 43% | MidStream | 0.645 | Billion |
| | | | | | 57% | Utility | 0.855 | Billion |
Now…. the breakdown of earnings is only a estimate following the ebitda breakdown
| Earning Split --Estimated by EBITDA split | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | |
| 2021 | earnings | | 1.50 | per share | 43% | MidStream | 0.645 | per share |
| | | | | | 57% | Utility | 0.855 | per share |
| | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | |
| Stock Price | | Midstream | P/E | 12 | | $ 7.74 | | |
| | | Utility | P/E | 18 | | $ 15.39 | | |
| | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | SP | $ 23.13 | | |
GLTA
RFguy
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marketsense - (4/16/2021 5:38:26 PM) RE:RE:RE:Greg Newman view on ALA .... Totally agree and have coninued to hold. Don't get why their business model should be so
misunderstood. They had a major restructuring of their business model a few years back but
since then continued to perform on all metrics since, inculuding all through the pandemic year. They own WGl, 2 lucrative propane export business licenses and % of pipeline assets.
I do get that many investors were upset over the restructuring and the dividend cut so it still
lags its peers, but as for performance, its right up there. Revenues increasing, debt is
reducing and dividend increase this year. I don't see the reason for being misunderstood
by the market but I do see the reasons for buying and holding and have continued to add at
strategic times when selloffs have occured.
RFguy