Thinking about Earnings for ALA this quarterAssume for a moment that they ar eon track to meet the high end of their range. Then assume that nothing has changed from last year in terms of sources of income ( I know that's not correct but stay with me.)
Last year in the first quarter they delivered 38.09% of their annual total EBITDA and 55.63 of their annual earnings.
So to meet the target of 1.5 billion EBITDA they must deliver (using this model) $571.35 million EBITDA this quarter up from 499 in 2020.
They must also deliver ( assuming they meet their high end earnings per share target of $0.862 per share in Qtr 1
Analysts have been looking for about $.92 per share or roughly 6.7% higher than the .862 per share figure.
But if the company has been cautious and propane prices have risen strongly in the quarter and if they managed to exceed their targets by 10% throughout the year they could show EBITDA as high as 628.485 million EBITDA which would be spectacular. I myself think they may come in up to 4% higher than analysts have suggested on the EPS or about $.96 cents. and an Ebitda lower than 628 but higher than 575. But remember if they just come inwith .86 cents per share they could be viewed as on target to meet their own goals but to meet the street they will need more than .92 Remember also that .862 keeps them on target for another dividend raise of about 4% next December.
I am hopeful they may just move their targets upward..