BSdector2016: You must of missed this post and the corresponding discussion on the heating days for the 1st qtr 2020 to the 1st qtr -2021. Heating days is a standard tool to determine how much gas usage is used and to predict future usage (30 year average). Your comment about 2021 -1st is incorrect. based on heating days. The overall heating days is actually higher than the 1st qtr 2020.
There are websites that provide the heating days if you care to calculate for yourself. but make sure you use all90 days in the qtr and don't skip the Feb freeze.
RFguy.
Heating Days for 1stQTR 2021
Since WGL,SEMCO,ENSTAR are utilities that supply natural gas to its customers, heating days would be a quick measure of Altagas’s performance for the quarter when compared to last year. (Altagas uses a 30 year heating day average in the purchase of natural gas for storage to serve its customers)
Since the ultilies are separated by vast distances , I categorized the areas into 3 and calculated the heating days for the 3 regions. Given that the regions have different customer base, one uses a weighted distribution to determine the overall effect of heating days on all 3 regions (similar to center of mass).
Data is taken from the website below.
www.degreedays.net
Since the Washington , Michigan areas have increased heating days as compared to last year’s quarter, I would expect increased revenues from the utilities for this quarter. Enstar shows a decrease but its customer base is significantly lower than that of Washington and Michigan areas.
Customer growth is typically 1% per year.
| Washington | Detroit | Anchorage |
1st qtr-2020 | 1st Qtr-2021 | 1st qtr-2020 | 1st Qtr-2021 | 1st qtr-2020 | 1st Qtr-2021 |
| | | | | |
Heating Days | 1717.9 | 2058 | 2812 | 2978.4 | 4674 | 4170.2 |
| | | | | | | |
Customers | 1209000 | 313000 | 149000 |
| | | | | | | |
Weighted mean Heating days (customer Based) 1st qtr 20 | | | | | | |
| | | | | |
| 2186.43 | |
| | | | | |
Weighted mean Heating days (customer Based) 1st qtr 2021 | | | | | | |
| | | | | |
| 2418.74 | |
| | | | | |
| | | | | | | |
% change Between qtrs 20/21 | | 9.60% | |
| | | | | |
Results indicate a 9-10% increase in the weighted heat days for Altagas so I would expect a similiar increase in revenue generated from the usage of natural gas.
GLTA
RFguy.
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BSdetector2016 - (4/23/2021 3:08:02 PM)
Upcoming earnings...hmmm The AltaPumpers are at it again I see. What about that mild to non-existant winter weather in the northeast US? Much-needed WGL performance won't be much good for Q1 earnings this year.