Nevada Copper Corp NEVDQ

RE:RE:RE:Is recession contagious?

[Notgnu]

Putting emotion and personal situations aside for 59.5 seconds, here is one scenario I can imagine (wako though that you may think it is.) In this scenario:

1. A lot of elderly frail and ill people die relative to the amount of otherwise healthy people that die
2. The vast majority of the others survive without serious, deliterious, long-term effects
3. Wealth is past on and concentrated in the younger generation earlier than otherwise would be the case
4. The burden of caring for elderly or the cronicly sick is reduced
5. Recovery picks up pace and the new learnings and technological forward push move culture forward and away from archaic traditions as the younger generation is strenthened
6. The ecomony and GDP increase as an unintended (Freakenomic) type of outcome

No, I am not a socio, or psycopath to suggest this outcome. It is just that all external factors and possibities and human inventiveness and resiliance need be taken to account IM 9not always so) HO.

Cheers,
N

bogfit wrote:  I hope you are right  to "expect this European recession will be transitory at best."
and "growth to resume in a big way across Europe in the latter half of 2021..." 

But unlike yourself I am not so sure.

Why, because comparisons to other countries is simplistic and fallacious.    Political, cultural, and economic variances predetermine the course of a pandemic in any population.   The importance of world trade should be seen as time dependent, such as in supply chains - you know - weakest link??    What the U. S. did last month may be inappropriate for another country to attempt next month.  The Pandemic is evolving, spreading, and becoming more contagious; and in time more lethal.  There is no guarantee a variant might not evolve that is highly resistant to the present series of antibodies.  Are you factoring the possibility of having to reimmunize the world’s population again?

The fact is neither you nor anyone else has any idea of the eventual scope of damage to world economies and global trade from the Covid Pandemic.   It may be entirely possible for rich nations such as the U.S. to spend their way to eventual prosperity, but that luxury isn’t universally available. 

I.E. - You may have heard they do some mining down in Brazil however,

“Brazil is in the grip of a health and social emergency. It has the world's second-highest death toll from the pandemic at over 370,000, and hospitals are near collapse. A study last week found that 60% of Brazilian households have food insecurity, lacking sufficient access to enough to eat.”

And how far is India from total collapse?  I hope for the best too, but Pollyanna, wishful thinking might truly be the opium of the people.
 
b.