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It's happening right now, people.

[bogfit]

India, the country that houses the world’s largest vaccine manufacturer, the government began to pause vaccine exports.

The suspension of exports in April has contributed to a 90 million-dose shortfall for Covax, an international vaccine distribution effort, one of the group’s key backers said Friday. That number will only grow in May if restrictions are not lifted.

The limited supply would be a particularly big blow for low-income nations, many of which not only sought India-produced AstraZeneca through Covax but also pursued bilateral deals with Serum Institute of India, the Pune-based vaccine giant.

Officials from the African Union, which also arranged supplies from Serum, have expressed alarm, with top health official John Nkengasong saying this month that the export controls could be “catastrophic” for the continent.

Nkengasong, who heads the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said this week that what was happening in India could eventually happen in Africa. “We are living in a world that is extremely uncertain now,” he told reporters in Nairobi on Thursday.

Andrea Taylor, a researcher at Duke University’s Global Health Innovation Center who leads a team tracking vaccine deals and distribution, said continuing delays in Indian exports would be “devastating” for the poorer nations, adding that Covax would probably meet only a fraction of its distribution goals for May.
 
“There is no contingency plan or alternate supplier for the next few months,” Taylor said.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/04/30/india-coronavirus-vaccine-supply/
 
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