RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:SGYNuttall doesn't like SGY and hasn't for a very long time. It's far beyond reason as he does like other companies with similiar or worse assets, debt profiles, and production growth.
It suggests there is something personal between him and someone at SGY, possibly Paul himself. The moment Surge is even mentioned by a caller on market call, he always bristles and his comments seem to be laced with subtle anger - uncharacteristic for him.
So I usually ignore Nuttall's rants about SGY's poor investment prospects. I don't think his opinion has anything to do with fundamentals.
Maxmoe wrote: Well, I'm going to correct your correction. I said most flow through deals are bought up by institutional buyers flow thu LPs LIKE canoe and middlefield. I wasn't implying it was only those guys. I stand by my observation that schmucks like us retail investors are in the minority on these deals. Canoe, for one, has grown very successfully way beyond a boutique hnw, hedge fund office with some flow thru LPs that it used to be but I'll bet they still buy some flow for their hnw guys. I don't follow deal flow like I used to but I assume Goodman and CMP still have LPs. The charity guys used to all be tax scammers vs real investors so I never followed them. Now wouldn't it be something if Eric nuttal's colleagues at nine point bought this sgy flowthru? I don't think he runs the LPs but I know sgy is on his naught list. That would make for an awkward weekly conference call eh?
riski wrote: Good post - the only part that I don't agree with is the holders of these flow throughs. Canoe and the like sometimes participate in issues, but usually only on companies they are willing to hold for some time and not flow through.
For flow through, the real advantage is to the high income HNW individual investor paying tax in the top bracket. That is the target for these shares, and that's who subscribes. These are individual investors with a lot more money than most, not institutions.
Often these shares are shuffled through a charity after being renounced through the CEE/CDE programs and the net result is postive cash flow for the investor assuming the share price is constant.
The share price can fluctuate, but for someone who doesn't want to actually speculate on the stock, they can just short the stock in their account until the closing date and then reverse the two trades once they receive the shares.
Yesterday's price action may have related to a lot of shorting for just this purpose.
Maxmoe wrote: I'll add to this thread. Yes it will increase the institutional holdings of sgy, even if only temporarily (4months) because schmucks on this board don't buy flow thru deals. Most of it will get snapped up by institutional buyers flo thru LPs like canoe and middle field. Hi net worth managers like lots of the guys on BNN lunch show buy them. The tax write offs are not as good for oil as they are for mining so the premiums can be higher for a hot Quebec gold play, for example. These deals are lead by investment bankers, not the fat cats atop the Bay Street towers. Their DD is limited to making sure the company is legit, and making sure the deal is sold out. So it's more about quantity than quality. As for the actual premium here, I'm going to suggest there is NO way a bought deal with no flow thru would get done over 50. So the premium at 59 is realistically about 20%. It's very good news it was way over subscribed and upsized
riski wrote: Yes, you are partially right. See my previous comment. They turn down deals all the time that they think won't sell well. They wouldn't take one on that they couldn't sell.
The ability to sell an issue comes down to two factors that intersect. One is the quality of the company/chance of share price increase. The second is the deal. The worse the quality of the company, the better the deal has to be to make the bankers think they can sell it. For example, the company may want to sell a bought deal above market, but the bankers say no way it sells and tell them to take a hike.
So they come back and say they will do the issue at below 3-5%, and then the bankers are more interested because that is something they might be able to sell on a weak company.
Or they do a flow through. Or some other things like rights or warrants or debs.
That is why the share price went down today. The short form prospectus for flow through shares were issued as a bought deal (good), but at a price way below market for flow through shares (bad). Flow through shares on a good company with good prospects should go for 20-30% above the market price.
Countrin2tive wrote: OK, I'll assume you're right, and of course they have to sell the stocks. However, I find it hard to believe that they would risk $20 million without doing DD. After all they don't make any money if they can't resell the stock.
Further, if they are flogging stocks to their customers, How could they not know something about stocks. Only makes sense. You say you were in that business, how did you sell stocks without being able to make some sort of recommendation? Otherwise, you would have to say I dunno.