RE:RE:RE:Q1 resultsKeep in mind I believe the special they gave out last quarter we are pretty positive was dilutive to about 5% also I don't know if the 1 time item they referred to was part of the earnings number last time which might have given is a bit of an artificial boost.
Like a US BDC I don't think we trade on P/E for these mortgage based financials, it's more of a Net Asset Value of the mortgages they have in the system? I don't know the number that is or how it would be calculated as it's above my head, but earnings/share are always strong within these companies and they seem to not matter. I use the dividend yeild as my metric to measure where we are, whether that's proper or not I don't know, but I've mentioned in previous posts every other company in the sector has a very similar dividend usually 8% is the average and they rarely go above 9 and hardly go below 7%, so I use those as my overbought/oversolds with 8 being fair price. I'm open to a more proper standard but I don't know one and this has been pretty good as far as I've seen.
I do hope for your earnings/share number, but I would expect it's likely lower than 3, maybe lower 2s but again I don't really follow it so I don't look for earnings per share when I read the reports. In its current state I'd say $17 is what I would say is fair price and according to the company's offering they are signalling they feel it's lower 16s if I read between the lines. There's been a few times the company goes a few dollars above or below fair market but without a dividend raise I don't see $24 being realistic at this moment.
I love this company, it makes up just under 33% of my TFSA portfolio and accounts for about 50% of the dividends I receive and my yeild on purchase is just under 11.4%, but I've mentioned before there are minor flags that get raised from time to time. One of those flags is that as well as the company has been doing, the dividend is lower than one we were receiving previously. So everything can be happy cheery in the numbers, but they aren't as good as a couple years ago when the company paid out 37 cents per quarter for a year and at that time our price peaked at 19.27 and spent most of its time in high 17s & lower 18s. So right now we are in the same range but getting 3 cents less of a payout.