RE:RE:RE:RE:Industry ComparisonThis thing is definitely a cash flow beast if unhedged at these prices. Unfortuntely cash flow is being held back by a substantial amount of production in 2021 being hedged for year.
Yeah, if unhedged, with a breakeven of $45 WTI (assuming $10 WCS differential) and roughly 70 mill in cash flow per each $5 WTI increment from $45, this thing would definitely be a monster
65-45=20
20/5=4
4x70=280
280 mill - 100 mill in capex = 180 mill in Free cash flow
180 mill in free cash flow for a roughly 400 million dollar market cap stock, is definitely very impressive. Too bad much of said cash flow is being restrained by the hedges for this year...
Mindset wrote: Every $5 increase in WTI = $70ml to cash flow unhedged. Hard to find better than that with the long reserve life and low decline rates ATH has.
Even better is ATH has negative overhangs that when they come off will launch the stock higher and higher as they are overcome.
In addition when the WCS spread narrows, and access to the coast opens up, I'll be surprise if this company is still around.
Get in while you still can at these levels