Conservative or Not...Had to remind myself what we got here and as I love spreadsheets...:
- Crawford alone shows north of 14Bio worth of Ni/ Ni-Sulfate Concentrate (based on 40% recovery rate) in the ground
- Additional metals (Cobalt, ...) add another 3-4 Bio (40% recovery rate)
- Capex somewhere short of 1Bio (based on Selby's comments my guess would be 800-900Mio)
- Based on Crawford alone and a $3.1 cost/lb (all-in), my estimate for pre-tax & discounted NPV is somewhere in the range of 7.5-8.5 Bio (US).
- With an NPV/MarketCap multiple similar to some other mining companies this would translate into a market cap 20-30% above current levels.
Notes:
- This is for one property - CNC got a bunch of other properties (Kingsmill, Nesbitt, Mahaffy, McDiarmid), one already being estimated 15% larger than Crawford, but they won't be included in this first PEA
- This is without any of the other metals included (Co, Fe, Pd, Pt) which add another ~25% on top (left them out as I wasn't able to guess the cost/lb).
- The $3.1 cost/lb is probably on the conservative side and I would hope we see <3 number
- Avg. recovery rate could be higher
Numbers are quite sensitive w/r to cost,recovery rate and Ni price but I do feel we are priced fairly with a ton of upside potential.
I just don't expect a huge immediate jump with the release of the PEA, rather than crawling further up getting into the high 4's with the PEA release which seems reasonable.
In for the long run anyhow.
GLTA