TD's Take on Q1 Q1/F21 First Take - Revenue Beats, Adj. EBITDA In-Line
Event
WELL released its Q1/F21 results.
Conference Call: 1:00pm ET; 1-888-664-6383/416-764-8650; Conf. ID: 5652 9388
Impact: NEUTRAL
Q1 revenue beats expectations, Adj. EBITDA is in-line. WELL reported Q1
revenue of $25.6mm, ahead of our $24.8mm estimate and consensus at $24.3mm.
Adj. EBITDA of $0.5mm was in-line with consensus at $0.6mm but slightly below our
$0.8mm estimate. The MD&A and full financial statements have not been published
yet but below are our initial observations:
Revenue grew 150% y/y and 49% q/q, driven in particular by the record M&A
activity last quarter.
Gross margin was 39.3%, up from 38.5% last year but down from 46.5% last
quarter and below our 45.1% estimate. We believe gross margins were likely
hurt in part by a higher contribution from lower margin equipment sales in its
cybersecurity business. Recall, WELL indicated last quarter that a large shipment
of equipment was delayed until early Q1 F2021.
Adj. EBITDA margin was 2.1%, up from (2.4%) last year but down from 4.5% last
quarter and below our 3.1% forecast, with the slight miss due to the lower-thanexpected gross margins. We believe an increase in growth investments at Circle
Medical offset ongoing solid profitability gains in its Canadian operations, which
generated $1.1mm in Adj. EBITDA.
This was WELL's second consecutive quarter of positive Adj. EBITDA and we
note that Adj. EBITDA margins should surge next quarter due to the acquisition
of CRH (we estimate Adj. EBITDA margins should reach the mid-20%).
WELL indicated that CRH is on-track to meet or exceed its 2021 business plan
goal of generating over US$150mm in revenue, US$60mm in EBITDA (40%
margin), and US$40mm in FCF before leverage and tax costs. Accordingly,
WELL's pro-forma revenue is now approaching $300mm with over $80mm in
EBITDA on a run-rate basis.
We note that consensus estimates for 2H F2021 imply WELL hitting the revenue
run-rate but falling a bit short of the EBITDA (which could be due estimates
reflecting a mix of both CRH's consolidated operating EBITDA and its EBITDA to
shareholders).