Q1 Results - First Glance Summary
I’ll be comparing their performance to CIBC analyst Hamir Patel’s estimates for this quarter.
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CIBC estimated $945 US average lumber prices but CFF’s average was $982 US.
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Production was estimated to be 52 million board feet but they did 51 million which was 85% of their annualized operating rates.
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Shipments were down to 37.8 million due to railcar shortages.
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Adjusted EBITDA was 9.7 million compared to CIBC’s estimate of 13.2 million.
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Net debt increased to 49.9 million vs the 39.95 million estimate however overall debt decreased from 63.4 to 61.9 million.
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EPS was estimated to be 0.15 a share however it was 0.10 a share.
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They lost 900k on lumber futures.
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There are now 46.15 million shares outstanding.
As we can see they clearly missed on earnings but they did a great job of increasing production from last quarter. Not only that but they will be able to ship more lumber in Q2 at higher lumber prices now. Except Ken enjoys using derivative contracts so I wouldn’t be surprised if they incur more unrealized losses on those contracts.
Outlook for rest of 2021
They expect to achieve 96% capacity of their annualized operating rates for the rest of 2021 so that works out to 57.6 million in production for each quarter for a total of 172.8 million board feet. I mean they’ve said that they were looking to achieve 90% operating capacity for Q1 and they only achieved 85% so I don’t know if they can deliver on that number but we will see.