Emerging Proxy Based ValuationNow that debt has been paid down to $40 million, with $20 million or less at exit 2021. these are my fair value at peer EV to Ebitda.. I assume the following..
LT debt will be paid down to $ 20million
Ebitda is $ 40 million
EV to Ebitda Multiple = 14.1 ( https://siblisresearch.com/data/ev-ebitda-multiple/ )
FYI Enterprise value = Market cap + debt minus cash
Current EV = $ $60 m
Projected EV at Exit 2021 = 14.1. X $32 m = $ 560 million
Projected Market Cap = $ 560 m less $20 m debt = $540 million
Fair value Share price = $12 per share
Divide by 2 to be conservative = $ 6 per share.
Actually, I don't see the need to be conservative because......
....another $8.5 million in operating cost compression gains is forecast for 2021.
.....incipient growth in revenues is now entering valation indices
.....additional potential cash inflows could be squeezed out of the $20 million excess of Receuvables over Payables
......growth by entry into new markets
....recurring revenues is 70% of total revenues
So, realistically , I see upwards to $12 per share at exit 2021