Dialogue Health Technologies Inc.
(CARE-T) C$14.85
Q1/F21 Results; Charging Ahead on All Fronts Event
We are updating our estimates and target price following Dialogue's Q1/F21 results. For our initial take, click here.
Impact: NEUTRAL; Target price decrease due to recent decline in peer valuations
Cross-selling is picking up steam. Dialogue indicated that 44% of new customer contracts in Q1 were for multiple services, highlighting strong interest for Dialogue suite of fully integrated solutions, with a similar level of interest among opportunities in the pipeline. Also, 11% of members have access to two services (up from 6% last year) with another 5% having access to all three services (i.e., 16% of members have access to multiple services).
Telehealth stocks under pressure; Dialogue is holding in well. Telehealth stocks in the U.S. have fallen significantly in recent weeks, we believe, partly due to increased competition concerns, profit-taking in pandemic-related winners, and some company-specific concerns (e.g., growth outlook). Teladoc (TDOC-N; not rated), Dialogue's closest peer, in our view, has seen its share price and valuation multiple (C2022E EV/Revenue) fall ~20-25% since we initiated coverage on Dialogue three weeks ago.
Dialogue has held in well, with its shares and C2022E EV/Revenue multiple being down ~10-15%, as we believe it is somewhat insulated from some of these concerns faced by its U.S. peers and it also is likely benefiting from some telehealth scarcity value in Canada, its superior (organic) growth profile, and strong balance sheet and execution.
Potential silver lining? The recent weakness in telehealth and general healthcare tech valuations could help Dialogue on the M&A front, where it remains active. Its strong cash balance (~$125mm in net cash) and its public currency has enabled it to evaluate larger deals; however, management reiterated it will remain disciplined with its M&A strategy. We see acquisitions as not only a key (near-term) catalyst, but also as an important way to help it defend its leadership position and further entrench themselves with customers in what remains a very competitive market.
TD Investment Conclusion
We are lowering our target price to C$17.50 (was C$19.00) due to the recent decline in peer group multiples. Our target price is based on 11x (12.5x previously) our F2022 revenue estimate.