RE:RE:Building expectationsI did not spend a ton of time on it, but I did not find an already approved drug. TPTX describes themselves as a clinical stage biotech company, so I assumed they did not have any approved drugs. I saw they had around $50 million in revenues in the last 12 months and half of that came from a licensing deal - maybe the other half came from this drug you are referring to? But with $50 million in revenues, it sounds a lot like THTX too.
Wino115 wrote: Instructive. Back in 2019 during it's early phase trials prior to FDA approval for their 1 drug, it was $300mil mkt cap. Now up 10x. The drug that was approved, and is key to their pipeline in other combo trials, is for a very specialized form of lymphoma that has only 8-10,000 annual occurances. Compare that to what THTX is going after as far as addreasable population. THTX's market is many multiples of that. I don't know what they charge for their lymphoma drug, but it's certainly supporting a nice market cap. Must be charging a lot. By the way, for FDA approval it had a roughly 50% ORR (split roughly 10CR/40PR). Duration of response seemed to average around 12 months, but I could be reading their chart wrong.
SPCEO1 wrote: Stock prices usually do best when a company has established a track record of making the right decisions and where the market has knowledge of important new info coming out on the horizon for that company. Because the company has an established track record of making the right calls, the market assumes the expected new info has a good chance of being positive and investors take positions in the stock in expectation of that postive news. Basically, investors are engaged and following events closely and anticipating them. WHen those events actually come to pass the stock normally moves even higher.
TH has some potentially positive developments on the immediate horizon but no one cares because of their really poor track record in dealing with the investment community. Therefore, there are no investors trying to preposition themselves in the stock for those potentially positive news items. And when the news is actually reported, it can be ignored.
I assume Life Science Advisors is working hard to get this sorted out and hopefully we see evidence of that very soon. The opportunity costs to THTX shareholders are huge. If you want to get a feel for what those costs might be, look at TPTX, just one letter different than THTX's stock symbol. TPTX, a drug developer with early stage trials in targeted cancer therapies, has a market cap of $3.2 billion and an average analyst price target that implies an expected market cap of around $7 billion. They have $1.1 billion in cash and spent $185 million last year, no doubt much of it on researchers who wrote papers and spoke frequesntly at medical conferencecs. TPTX stock is covered by a large stable of analysts. Basically, TPTX is everything THTX is not. But they may provide a decent model for what THTX could become. .