RE:Building expectations Their tech is different to THTX. When I just read their presentation it brought to mind LOXO in that they are targeting specific mutations and getting very high ORR in their early data. It wouldn't surprise me that the market is pricing it as the next LOXO with expectations for a similar buyout price. My preference is for Sutro as a more reasonable comparable to aim at for the time being.
SPCEO1 wrote: Stock prices usually do best when a company has established a track record of making the right decisions and where the market has knowledge of important new info coming out on the horizon for that company. Because the company has an established track record of making the right calls, the market assumes the expected new info has a good chance of being positive and investors take positions in the stock in expectation of that postive news. Basically, investors are engaged and following events closely and anticipating them. WHen those events actually come to pass the stock normally moves even higher.
TH has some potentially positive developments on the immediate horizon but no one cares because of their really poor track record in dealing with the investment community. Therefore, there are no investors trying to preposition themselves in the stock for those potentially positive news items. And when the news is actually reported, it can be ignored.
I assume Life Science Advisors is working hard to get this sorted out and hopefully we see evidence of that very soon. The opportunity costs to THTX shareholders are huge. If you want to get a feel for what those costs might be, look at TPTX, just one letter different than THTX's stock symbol. TPTX, a drug developer with early stage trials in targeted cancer therapies, has a market cap of $3.2 billion and an average analyst price target that implies an expected market cap of around $7 billion. They have $1.1 billion in cash and spent $185 million last year, no doubt much of it on researchers who wrote papers and spoke frequesntly at medical conferencecs. TPTX stock is covered by a large stable of analysts. Basically, TPTX is everything THTX is not. But they may provide a decent model for what THTX could become. .