RE:RE:Consumer Price IndexAs usual we agree on some things and not on others. We've obviously moved into the fuzzy area of macro economics and strangely enough, that was not my major. On the plus side my opinions are generally as good or better than the so-called experts. I'll parse this reply down by pasting your quotes in, then my comments in red. I hope to God they're not paying you by the word now :>
"the YOY numbers contain percentage fallacy. I agree with you that CPI goods are more expensive, but the transitory narrative, especially coming from the literal best and brightest, should not be dismissed."
The YOY numbers are always a fallacy, just like all government data on inflation. Higher inflation forces the government to pay higher amounts to Social Security recipients, etc. The data is always much lower than actual. That's why they originally split out energy and food from the "core" inflation number used to determine annual increases for payments that are indexed to "inflation."
We agree that there may be a transitory effect (I truly hope you don't really think there are "best and brightest" economists), but the Fed was not expecting 4.2% this quickly. They have a problem. The one thing the Fed cannot afford under any scenario is a change in inflation expectations. They may be on the edge of a cliff in that regard. I certainly expect higher costs going forward. You?
"I feel gold has another flush left, to the 1750, 1760 level. Plus, risk on, my business and my friends business, there's no sign of stopping, expansion, and no fear for the future."
I'm good with 1757 as a support point if gold turns down - which it could if folks need to cash in to cover margin calls. Risk on = Yes, if your business does not depend on low interest rates to borrow huge amounts of cash to buy back your stock at high valuations.
"The jobs #'s don't seem accurate, either side of the argument."
Government Unemployment numbers are never accurate. The government must always appear to be more effective than it actually is when managing employment. In the USA, funny numbers such as the "birth/death" estimate inflate employment data every month and reduce the unemployment percentage. Also, folks who have become discouraged and have stopped looking for jobs are not counted as "unemployed" they are in a separate category "no longer in the work force." That shows up as part of the "Labor Participation Rate" stats, which are stuck at about the 62% level down from about 67% at the turn of the century.
As for the other labor and geopolitical factors you mention creating a fundamental shift in labor markets? Yes, of course. Just the migration from the cities alone, and more work from home, less commercial real estate needed by business in general - massive changes. The Pandemic will result in generational changes I expect, just like the Great Depression resulted in generations afterward paying off mortgages and buying cars in cash so they couldn't be repossessed.
As to the Amigos, we seem to agree that the drill results will determine outcomes. Promotion efforts and communications don't seem to be having an impact on most stocks right now, so I doubt it's worth any time or spend.
I'm good with that. In the meantime, I know I can count on a steady stream of "innocent questions" to flush out the paper hands and keep the stock price down to attractive accumulation levels.