RE:RE:RE:RE:GRN has amazing growth potential. I appreciate the measured response. I realize negative sentiment isn't what people want to hear and I would describe myself as neutral on grn at this point (it's clearly on my watch list). Plus I mean if you're not looking at the way things could go wrong you're exposing yourself to all sorts of risk.
Last year they only announced 1 contract before the end of June and iirc the contract right at the end of june was a 3 install just over 20 million dollar contract, so they're not in any trouble yet. The way business comes in is super lumpy, maybe not bus company lumpy (I will not touch those stocks), but lumpy none the less. I do hate the fact that it's impossible to know if they're about to announce 50 million worth of contracts or if they've lost the majority of contracts they've bid on recently. One risk factor that investors should absolutely consider is that it is very common for companies to underbid each other to the point they are taking a loss on contracts just to acquire market share/keep their guys working. The CEO has said publicly that they will not take contracts below their target margins and their competitors will know this. I really love this company and hope to get back into it at some point but I felt I was able to get a better risk/reward profile in other places.
I truly hope GRN is a resounding success and that they can continue to have 100% yoy growth, but given that they've said there is a lack of investment capital in the space it seems like we might see stagnant growth in 2022.
GLTA
Airbud wrote:
I, unfortunately, think you're spot on. The business is going to be lumpy but large multiyear contract wins will help to smooth them out a bit.
The one line in the NR that sticks out is "Year to date in 2021, we’ve been winning contracts across multiple geographies and technologies, have announced $6.2 million in new contracts in the first month of Q2, and see the potential for further near term conversion of sales pipeline opportunities"
I’m long GRN so am happy with the continued growth and comfortable with the roller coaster ride.