RE:RE:RE:An excellent Quarter
Your free cash flow estimate is also too high.
In Q1, for example, EBITDA was 26.6 million.
The company spends about $700k quarterly on leases. They also will be applying $2M/quarter in pension payments over accounting cost. CapEx is typically around $1.4 million.
A fairer estimate for the rest of 2021 is about $7 million a month, especially given the decline in revenues and also future expenditures on what you see as "provisions" on the balance sheet (severance packages, office closures, etc.).
Ignoring dividends and buybacks, there will be about $125 million in the bank at year end. This is still an impressive amount of money considering this is the Yellow Pages we are talking about.
Finally, the company's tax shield is going to 'slow down'. I'll spare the technicalities, but the ability of the company to utilize the tax losses from the money former CEO Tellier blew on acquisitions can only be utilized at a certain rate.
The math is pretty simple. If they can stabalize the business at even half of the current cash generation level, they will receive a huge price-to-cash multiple boost. Let's say double the current stock price. The current stock price is still projecting a dismal outcome to the business.