RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Head grade first months of production HuberPeter wrote: Hi tx,
if you make some DD of the published recent md&a and financial report you will assume that I should be right.
Processing tonnage of april is reported; oz sold are reported; they should have sold like in q1 about 80% of production (5 days backlog production)
oz in circuit and in stockpile til end of March are reported.
This assumptions give me a picture that head grade was not above 1.1 g/t in between April and mid May.
wouldn't be sure that theese problems will not affect Egina; but at least Karratha. Grade Control is the Problem. Sure - there is another concept of mining at Egina. Netherless the fear of scaling up from mak to big bulk mining would be high.
but doesn't really matter. Novo is current on the path of producing about 40.000-50.000 oz per year. Til infill results reporting there is no sight of significant improvements.
infill drilling will show if it is a grade Control problem or a cause overestimation of the reported oz respectively the grade at maiden.
Peter
TXRogers wrote:
HuberPeter wrote: What should he say? He is a promotion man.
many promises couldn't be kept. No capital raising, no infill; just mining;
maybe without ni43-101 ...
this problems will have an impact for the business case of Karratha and Egina too.
VilleValium wrote:
HuberPeter wrote: headgrade mid Feb - mid
Using the md & a and financials from q1 and the md & a, I analyzed an approximation of the head grade by mid-April.
Q1 / 21
first pour oz mid Feb21
revenue: 7.6m cad valued at 1800 usd / oz = 3400 oz sold
stockpile: 800 oz + 150 oz in the circuit results in approx. 4200-4500 oz production for 1.5m including tailings
= approx. 2,900 oz per month in the ramp up Feb and March
April - Mid May oz sold: 8800 + 1000 oz stockpile incl circuit
= approx. 9800 oz prodction ergo: 5400 oz production for 1.5 month = 3.600 oz per month (90% utilization)
processing: 108,000 April (md & a) + 60,000 half of may = 168,000t
Head grade: 0.9 - 1.1 g / t
Recovery: 92%
I find it particularly problematic that the headgrade did not recover in April until mid-May. According Pea a head grade of 2.16 g / t is targeted. It will be interesting to see how the headgrade changes with the processing of the high-grade reef. However, according to the PEA, a head grade of approx. 2.1 g / t was also shown in the first year.
As feared, this is not a ramp-up problem and no significant improvement is to be expected in the next few months.
Peter
Really? So then why will Q be saying the opposite when he does his interviews this week. Normal startup issues. Mere mortals cant understand how complex this stuff is. VV
A couple of things, Peter.
Your comment "
I find it particularly problematic that the headgrade did not recover in April until mid-May." I wouldn't be so sure on that assumption.
And regarding Karratha and Egina: Those projects will not undergo the same process or business case as Beatons Creek. And neither will the resulting headgrades of the ore concentrate that makes it way across the Pilbara to the mill.
As for the latter Karratha / egina type projects, I would not be putting the cart in front of the horse just yet.
Tx
Well Peter, assumptions and facts are separated by increments of 499 seconds. And then all is revealed by the light. Being a blind man, I can only wait.
The PEA is in fact a collection of assumptions packaged as preliminary guidance. There is not much DD that can be performed on it in the case of BC, because the project has already gone into production. And we wait for the facts.
Your DD on the financial numbers are also an assessment of the past. Which unfortunately does not cost out the future because the recent non-recurring activities dominate the statements.
But most of us know this already. I am rathered intrigued by your revisiting of this obvious situation. The last time you dabbled with DD, you announced to the board that there was simply not enough meat on the Novo bone for an acceptable risk / reward investment.
And we bid "adieu" until you could see more clarity in the future light. The document data in which you reference will not provide that clarity because it was not designed to do so.
Right Petey? $25 doesn't go far.
Your reemergence is indeed quite revealing. And so are the noticeable changes in your English grammar.
You see, Pete. You must always understand what accompanies you within the dark playgrounds you have chosen to visit. Where even the blind have the advantage.
Tx